Behind the Scenes...to an Election Call

Virtually since the Last Election I have predicted a Spring 2011 Election - check my Blogs.





I am not a magician - I simply am getting long in the tooth.





A Minority Parliament's useful date usually expires after two and half years - combine that with the Best


Season to have an Election - Spring and Voila you have Spring 2011.





But let's take a behind the scenes look at why all 4 Parties wanted to go now beyond the fact that the House had reached its Best Before Date.





First though a Disclaimer.





I am not saying I believe what I think the various Parties appear to be believing, I am simply saying that this is what I think they are thinking. Indeed, in some cases I believe they are misjudging the situation but more on that in a later Blog(s).





The Tories.





It is not easy running a minority government - lots of irritations not the least of which is being unable to get into your real program. Prime Ministers stuck in such situations dream of the day that they will be able to pursue their objectives unfettered. This is especially the case with the current occupant of 24 Sussex, Stephen Harper who has been stuck in this situation for some 5 (long) years.





And right now he finds himself and his Party on the brink of forming a Majority Government.





Polls over the course of the last few months showed the Tories ranging between a low of 35 % and a high of 43% with the median number being around 39%.





With the way in which the 4 Parties are split - the Tories should easily be returned with Majority Status if that 39% Median holds.





So Harper offers a bit in the Budget with the knowledge that that bit will not be enough for the Opposition Parties thereby putting the onus on them for the Election Call.








The Liberals





They know that this Election can only come out poorly for them. But they have had enough cow towing and propping up the Tories.





Plus the Grits themselves have had enough with their Leader. They want to get on with the bloodletting and see Ignatiff on his way back to the good ole USA.





But Ignatiff too has had enough. He never expected Politics in Canada to be so tough. He has taken one knock after another - some I believe undeserved - but he has ended up making Stephan Dion look positively good.





Ignatiff I believe wants out in the worst way but he is too proud to quit before once going to the Polls so he is prepared to do just that. Go to the Polls and then get on with his life and I do not believe his time a Opposition Leader will stand out positively for him in his years to come.







The NDP





Now to Jack - he smells blood.





And it is not Tory Blood - he too understands that the Conservatives are most likely to come out victorious - probably a Majority or at least a Strong Minority.





No, the Blood he smells is Grit Blood.





Again, let's look at the recent Polls.





Over the last few months the Liberals have ranged from 23% to 28% with a median of 26 %.





The NDP has ranged from 13 % to 20 % with a median of 17%. He knows too that the Liberal vote is more widely dispersed than is the NDP vote. For instance, the Liberals will get more votes in the East, in Quebec and in Ontario than will Jack's group where they will be competing with the Tories and Bloc and in many cases coming out 2nd.





But the NDP will be strong in the major Cities and in the West and in Northern Ontario.





He also sees the Liberals being on the verge of a free fall; the Libs are going into the Election dispirited.





Simply put - Jack sees rank and file Liberals turning to his Party in the upcoming Election and even foresees winning more seats than the Grits.





Visions of Opposition Leader dance in his head.





But don't celebrate too soon Jack.








The Bloc





This Party stands to win as much or more than the Conservatives.





Recent polling puts them at 40 % or so in Quebec almost two times as high as their closest rival the Liberals at 22%.



If those numbers hold and I expect they will, you will see the Bloc returned with upwards of 55 seats of the 75 Quebec seats available.



In 1993 the Bloc won 54 seats in Quebec and became Canada's Official Opposition Party.



The same could happen this time too.



But whether it does or not - such an increase would put the Bloc in stronger command of Quebec and should their sister provincial party win in the next Quebec Election - look out.





So that's my read. I have not seen much if any of what I have written above in the main street media. But that's my best bet and I stand by it.



As I see it...



'Galagher'

Ignatieff ...and most likely Harper....

are skating on thin ice.

Let's begin with the Honourable Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition ...Michael Ignatieff.

He has boldly (cynically) announced that should he be Elected, His Government would contribute to the planned Quebec Hockey Rink. You know - the one that will eventually be owned by Billionaires and played in by spoiled young Millionaires.

You get the feeling that Ignatieff would auction off his own mother if it meant more votes.

Thankfully, the media has seen through this blatant attempt at vote buying and has been most vociferous in its criticism.

As you know, from earlier Blogs, I initially had hopes for the Leader of the Opposition but that Hope faded long ago. His recent announcement merely confirms the correctness of my negative opinion of him.

Not surprisingly, a poll out this weekend shows that the Tories, followed by the NDP would provide "honest, open and trustworthy government" should they be elected, with those Polled having the Ignatieff Liberals coming in a distant third.

Maybe Ignatieff would be better off bribing the Pollsters.

Anyway, you will also know that I threatened in a recent Blog not to vote Conservative if they too fell into such Pork Barrelling nonsense. Fortunately the Tories have at last come out against such a waste of taxpayers dollars - but at first they flew alot of trial balloons. Remember the Quebec Caucus in their Hockey Uniforms.

Or did they back off?

In this weekend's paper the Tories announced a new $1 Billion infrastructure initiative of which over half will be spent in the Province of Quebec. I thought the Tories were on record as opposing further such spending based on the orgy of spending endured over the course of the last 2 years.

Call me cynical but here is what I think may (likely) have happened:

M. Prime Minister Charest the Prime Minister of Canada is on the line for you.

Bonjour Prime Minister - Good Day to you too Prime Minister.

Jean I have a proposition for you.

Always ready for a proposition Stephen.

I want you to announce that your Government will fund the Quebec Rink with the City of Quebec.

You are funny Stephen - you know we don't have the money to do that.

Jean - of course you do - what about all that Transfer Money Canada supplies to Quebec year in and year out - use a small part of that.

No can do Stephen - we need that money to subsidize our hydro costs, provide $7 day care, ridiculously cheap tuition and of course pay the damages resulting from Bill 101 ... among other things..

Oh yeah, I forgot.

Okay, but what about the Taxes you do collect from Quebecers surely some of that could go toward the Rink?

It is all spoken for.

Such as?

Such as our Bridges are falling down and our roads are in dis-repair.

But we have been pumping out Infrastructure Money like drunken sailors - surely Jean you got alot of that work done over the last 2 years?

Well not enough it.

Okay here is what we'll do Jean - We will cut a Billion Dollar Cheque for more infrastructure work. Quebec will get over half of that money - ie over $500 Million and that will free up funds for your Rink.

I knew we could count on you Stephen.

But Jean, this cannot get out publicly.

Understood, but how can we help you?

Jean, don't criticize us in the coming Election and hopefully you will even be able to find some words of praise for our Government.

Well Stephen there is no problem with the first but in regard to Words of Praise we may need just a little more...if you know what I mean.

Sadly I do Jean.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

OBAMA.............................................

What did you expect?

But maybe surprising for some of you...is the fact that I agree with him.

Before I get into that, bear with me while I ramble a bit.

From my overall perspective President Obama has been a disaster as President and although I could not vote for the man even if I was an American, after all I am a Libertarian, I was delighted to see him elected given his status as the first Black President of the United States of America.

I was soon to be disappointed in him, mainly because his Administration has spent trillion of dollars on credit - a credit which is wearing thin.

In addition, I do not warm to his We vs. Them philosophy - the We being the so-called downtrodden, welfare recipient and Trade Union Classes all backed by the Left.

Them are the Capitalists, the business community and the hard working centre who are family oriented, pay their taxes and their debts and obey the laws.

Obama was raised and worked in the We Community so it is not so surprising that he identifies with it.

In that regard, what really gets me is where exactly do Politicians like Obama think the money for their expansive governments come from if it is not from the Private Free Enterprise System? But even this System cannot keep up with Administrations' determined to outspend to the tune of Trillions of $ when their Treasuries are broke to begin with.

So you thought I said I agreed with Obama?

I do, insofar-as his decision on Libya is concerned.

This in spite of the great scorn he is now receiving around the world and in his own country where he is depicted as week-kneed, heartless, indecisive etc etc. for letting the innocents in Libya suffer at the hands of their Madman President. And this surprises me.

Did I mention to you that the US is broke - busted in fact with their currency in danger of going Peso. To be fair, this is not all Obama's fault. Republican Bush over his 8 year tenure too allowed their debt to climb to unrealistic levels.

But the fact remains that America is broke.

And as such, it can no longer fill the role as the World's Policeman - it is time for others to step up to the Plate and that is just what happened in the case of the Libyan Rebellion. France and then the UK took the lead in demanding action against the Crazed Dictator. And it's about time.

But permit me to digress again for a moment. Have you ever noticed that when the US does take some form of unilateral action, the chattering masses of the world denounce them in the vilest terms possible. And when the US sits back, stung from all of this criticism, these self same masses once again vilify America for not getting involved - for being indifferent to the plight of those less fortunate. Bottom line - the US simply cannot win.

In the face of this though the United States has on balanced persevered and has tried to do what is right despite the Arm Chair Critics to the contrary.

But what has changed in the last decade or so is that the balance of economic power is shifting away from the States. China as we all know is now its biggest creditor. National, State and Municipal governments are running huge deficits - and something has to give.

And it has started - as we know in places like Wisconsin, Union Powers are being constrained, in Michigan there large public layoffs - 25% and more and California has been reduced to issuing IOUs to its suppliers. The list goes on.

The National Government of the United States spends nearly 50% of its annual budget on Defence - this simply cannot continue. Cuts will soon have to be made or the States will descend again into a major Recession and more likely into a Depression.

So back to Libya. I don't know if Obama had this in mind when dealing with the Libyan Crisis. If he didn't he should have - and either way I fully support the man.

The day is ending when the US can be all things to all people - it is time for Europe - for South East Asia and others to step up and be counted.

That is not to say the day is over for America - but it is to say the day of them going it alone is rapidly coming to an end and we had better all get used to it.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

Our Hearts and Prayers are with the brave peoples of Japan

Their Monster Quake has been upgraded to 9.0 and the devastation it has caused is truly of biblical proportions.

That these proud peoples will bounce back is without question, as they have in the past, most recently after the close of WW II.

I can well remember when imports from Japan in those postwar years were mocked for their poor quality - just as I hear today it said about Chinese imports - but that did not last long. Indeed, before long, Japan was challenging and surpassing our very best in the categories of price and quality.

Japan and our second major enemy of that War are now economic powerhouses of the world. Japan stands number 3 and Germany is the lynch pin of a United Europe. Without both countries at our side, the dangers posed by both China and Russia would be so much more threatening.

A couple of years ago we had a Japanese student live with us for a few weeks. She was part of a high school group for which their curriculum required them to live with a family in a foreign country.

We of course got to know this young lady as well as the rest of kids with her from her Japan and found them to be just like our children when they were teenagers. Full of life, full of fun and always on the go.

That said, they had not yet graduated to body piercing, tattoos and strangely coloured hair. Hopefully they never will - but I digress.

I think of those kids when I see the accounts of what is now taking place so far away. I know full well that their spirit and enthusiasm for life will carry them through and along with them their country.

We here in Canada are so very fortunate that these types of disasters are rare occurrences and we need to thank God that this is so.

In the meantime we also need to do what we can to help those unfortunate folks. A great way would be by donating to the Red Cross.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

Every Time Harper Closes In On His Elusive Majority...

Something Blows Up In His Face.

I has happened once again and it has nothing to do with either Ms. Oda or Mr. Kenny - It is all about the Elections Canada and the 'in and out scandal'.

When I first heard about this matter I did not think it was such a big deal - what I understood it to be was that the National Tory Party provided funds to certain Ridings that had not spent their limit and these funds were allocated for the purpose of paying for local t.v. (media) advertising.

If more recent reports are accurate though, what really happened is that the National Tory Campaign provided funds to select local ridings and then immediately retrieved those funds back to the national campaign.

But it was not just a book entry since it is now alleged that this slight of hand entitled local tory associations to very large rebates from Elections Canada and those rebates of course are paid from Income Taxes.

One Riding - the Hull Aylmer Conservative Association, reported that that some $30,000 made their way from Elections Canada to its local coffers.

If you multiply that be the number of Ridings implicated you are soon up in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

This is the type of thing you would expect from past Liberal Regimes and not from the Torys.

I suspect that if the Opposition continues to seize on this issue, the favourable tory polls will start to wobble.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

Public Sector Unions ...

Should never have been permitted.

And now that they are here - they should be Disbanded.

Why you ask?

Because the Employer is You - the Taxpayer but You are at a serious disadvantage - You have no representation at the Negotiations.

Let's look at two examples - Wisconsin and Ontario.

In Wisconsin, the new Republican Governor is attempting to limit the power of its public service unions because his State can no longer afford the Settlements. Now get this - the State is broke - it has a $3 Billion deficit. The Unions are holding firm even though their intransigents will likely result in the loss of employment for many of the Union Membership. How selfish.

Now Ontario.

Ontario's deficit is a whopping $26 Billion accompanied by a total Debt of some $240 Billion which even in this low interest rate environment still consumes some $10 Billion annually in Interest Payments. And yet our dear Premier attacks the imbalance with cosmetic zeal. Even as the former Grit Finance Minister - John Manley is urging the Province to attack the Debt / Deficit on a "war footing".

In both our nations - Canada and the United States, Unions are in the decline and in the minority in the Private Sector. It is in the Public Sector in both countries where they continue to flourish.

It used to be that employees in the Public Sector - the civil service, the armed forces, the hospitals, the schools, firemen, policemen and so on - were paid less than their private sector counterparts on the basis that they had better working conditions and greater job security.

Today they have those latter benefits as well as better pay and more generous pensions in all, their pay and benefits are some 40% higher.

How did his come about?

You were not at the Table - the Negotiating Table that is.

Present were the Politicians and the Unions. The Unions made outrageous demands and the Politicians took the expedient routes and consistently caved. Neither was dealing with their own dough - and of course the Taxpayer Pot was endless.

Harris made an attempt to get a handle on this and indeed when he left power Ontario was still a Have Province with no Deficit (despite the Liberal Claim that they took over $5 Billion deficit).

McGuinty came in and bought Public Union Peace via huge wage and benefit settlements.

I remember a Labour Class in Law School where the Professor (a Union Negotiator) was trumpeting the fact that Nurses had just recently been granted the right to Unionize. I had some knowledge of Nurses - both my Mother and Wife are RNs so I spoke up to ask what would be gained by it and he said it would give them an opportunity to air their grievances and of course to Strike if those grievances were not addressed. I pointed out to him that I was not aware of any such grievances - certainly ones serious enough to warrant Strike - but that Unionization would of itself lead to labour unrest. The Professor was not impressed and not surprisingly I received my worst mark in his course.

And what happened to the concept of essential services. Government employees not only work in the best conditions and enjoy the greatest job security they also work in an absolute monopoly. No one exists to step in and do their work in cases of labour stoppage and it is the poor Taxpayer that suffers from their lack of service.

If a Marshmallow factory goes on strike - there will be other Marshmallow companies that will step in to fill the void - even if the Marshmallow Industry became a Monopoly - the Public could turn to Twinkies - we would not be held ransom.

Even here in Ottawa we have the recent example of the Bus Strike which caused great inconvenience to the commuting public and great economic damage to local business. The Strike was over scheduling - a Management prerogative but one that the Union coveted. This long Strike finally came to an end when it was agreed that the issue of scheduling would go to Arbitration. The Arbitrator sided with Management. The Issue Resolved.

Well not so fast - recent rumblings indicate that the Bus Union is once again considering labour withdrawal based on the Scheduling Issue. Toronto has seen common sense and recently moved to declare Bus Service an Essential Service - as it should be.

Indeed - any and all services provided by those who receive their pay and benefits from the hapless taxpayer should be similarly declared Essential and I would take it a step further and remove their right to Unionization and leave that activity to the Marshmallow factories and to the Coal Mines.

As I see it....

'Galagher'

Democracies...A Short Part 2

I would call this new organization The League of Democratic Nations after the defunct Post WW I League of Nations - it has a nice ring to it.

So let the current United Nations rant and rave - through the Permanent Vetoes of England, France and the United States - we can keep it from causing any serious damage.

We will though have to continue tolerate such idiocies as their appointment this week of Iran to the UN's Womens' Rights Commission. Can you imagine.

As I see it...

"Galagher'