My Predictions for this Past Year–2014

 

 

Lead in -

I have marked after each prediction three possible results in bold italics– a) check (ck) which means I am okay with what I predicted; b) blew it (b-i) which means I goofed; and c) explanation (ex) where I see my prediction as being neither correct nor wrong. 

So here goes -

The World -

1. War will remain widespread but limited in areas – the middle east and many parts of Africa.  Western nations for the most part will be able to sit back and idly watch.  CK
2. China, as its financial power continues to grow will continue to flex its military muscle but will avoid war for foreseeable future. CK
3. As mentioned above, Islamic terrorism will continue with renewed vigour and this will negatively impact all of us –including Muslims given the animosity that exists between their various sects. Christians and Jews though will continue to be especially targeted.  CK
4. The ‘experts’ predict that Gold will continue to decline in value over 2014. I disagree for the reasons set-out in the above background. CK (gold was $1,225 an ounce on Jan.1/14 and closed this year at $1,200)
5. Oil will move sideways as economic recovery will remain fragile and as the United States provides more and more of its energy use from internal sources.  Today’s price is $95 pbl.   B-i

The United States -

1. Obama’s approval rating now in the mid 40s will continue to decline. CK – it is now in the 30s
2. The Republicans will gain control of both the House and Senate in November’s Election. CK
3. The US debt now $17.3 Trillion will exceed $18 Trillion by year’s end. CK – it is now 18,048,085,863,422.40 and by the time the little man leaves the White House it will be well passed $20 Billion.  Something for the children and grandchildren to deal with.
4. Their GDP will surprisingly rise – but not by the 4% that financial experts are now predicting. (It is most difficult for me to see their GDP rising at all but I do bow to the ‘experts’ here.  This growth will be fuelled by the private sector which was hammered in 2008 and is simply in a bit of a recovery mode now). CK annual increase for 2014 was 2.7% although by year’s end it was starting to move higher.
5. Interest rates will continue to rise over 2014. B-i – they did not rise but if anything dropped slightly from 2013.
6. US diplomacy across the world will continue to misfire. Its enemies – Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, the Taliban, Al Qaeda will grow more brazen in thumbing their noses at America.  US allies, in contrast, will watch on in disbelief and will take greater steps to protect their own interests, abandoning their hereto dependence on the USA.  CK

Canada –

There were four major non anticipated occurrences last year here at home: 1. Mayor Rob Ford; 2. The Senate Scandal going rogue; 3. the Alberta Floods and 4. the Lac Megantic rail disaster. Only the Senate Scandal will continue to have legs although whether it should is open to debate.

1. With respect to our dollar the ‘experts’ say that it will continue to decline in comparison to the US sawbuck. It won’t. (as of today it is worth 96 cents).  B-i – it most certainly declined and it looks like it has room to go down further as we head into this new year.
2. Obama will turn down the Keystone Pipeline construction. for two reasons – one, as mentioned – America is making good progress in its goal of attaining energy self sufficiency; and two – he would be loath to let down his cadre of left wing loonies. CK
3. Pipeline construction / use generally will pick up across Canada but it will continue to be hampered by efforts of environmentalists, natives at every opportunity.  There will as always be violence mostly on the part of our natives. CK
4. As stated above, the Senate Scandal will continue in the news but at the end of the day will have little effect on next year’s – (2015) Federal General Election. EX – the senate scandal is still live as we await the AG’s audit on this most austere assembly.  Plus it will have an effect on this year’s election with the coming trial in April of the Duffster. Plus I suspect, unlike most other pundits that Harper will go to the polls in March to avoid the April trial.
5. The Future of the Senate itself will also be a major issue for 2014 as we currently await direction from our left leaning Supreme Court of Canada. CK –and not surprisingly the SCC said changes to the Senate would require the support of the Provinces so it looks like we are stuck with it for some time to come.
6. The Tories will make hay on several wedge issues – issues that distinguish the Conservatives from both the Liberals and the NDP.  The major ones being the legalization of marijuana, prostitution, and tough on crime issues generally. CK and as we leave this past year – Tory fortunes are on the rise in part to these issues.
7. Although I am not predicting it – Harper may decide to pack it in this year.  He seems to have lost his lust for power and I suspect he is not too happy with himself for the way in which he put several of his former friends and colleagues under the bus – not the least being nice guy Nigel Wright.  I suspect he has a little trouble these days looking at himself in the mirror.  If I had to bet I would predict he will not resign this year – but it he did – it would come as no surprise me. My prediction though is he will be in harness at year’s end.  CK – but if, as I suspect, it comes out in the Duffy trial that Harper knew about Nigel Wright’s agreement with Duffy in advance – he will be forced to resigned assuming he does not go to the polls in March of course.
8. The Tories will balance the budget by the end of this year as well.  CK
9. Michael Chong’s private member’s bill to reduce the power of the Prime Minister will be approved if it is allowed to go to 3rd and final reading. CK – although it was much watered down.

Ontario - As I have said many times previously – this current Liberal Government is the worst that I can ever recall save for the possibility of the Duplessis Government of Quebec in the 1930s,40s and 50s.

          There will be an election this year and the likelihood is that it will occur in the Spring.

1. Tim Hudak will win but one has to question why he would want to after the severe damage done by the Liberals over the course of the past 10 years. B-i
2. Rob Ford will not win the Toronto Mayoralty in this fall’s election. (I said above the Ford story will no longer have legs – that is not to say it will not be in the news – it simply means no one will give a damn if it is nor should they). EX – I was correct that Ford did not win – but of course I had no idea he would contract cancer – but even had he not withdrawn I believe now that Tory would have beaten him.  What I failed to see and hence the EX designation is the fact that the Ford saga continued to have legs.

E.U. -

1. Will for the most part be a non-issue in 2014 the only significant issue will be the continued rise of the extreme right against Jews and refugees. CK

Russia -

1. There will be no terrorists attacks at next month’s Sochi Games.  Security will just be too tight. CK
2. Putin has consolidated his power over 2013 and thus is well positioned to continue with his dictatorial ways over 2014 and likely beyond. CK
3. Russia (Putin) will continue to try to upstage the USA but the fact is Russia’s days as a world super power is over. EX – Russia continues to upstage the US and I do believe its days of Super Power status are over but it is making a strong attempt to regain its glory days of the USSR.  In that they will fail but much damage can result in the process.
4. Russia’s fight to more closely ally itself with the Ukraine will continue over the year but it is doomed to failure as the Ukraine will eventually become part of the EU – not this coming year though.  Until things are settled, violence will be prevail.  CK

China -

1. It will continue to grow economically by leaps and bounds and will continue to beef up its military capacity. CK
2. It will not seriously engage in military action. CK – it is threatening to do so but has not yet engaged in doing so.

North Korea -

1. Something is gravely amiss in the North.  Dear Leader is in trouble and will be fortunate to survive although I believe with the execution of his uncle – he has bought time to survive at least until next year. CK

The Middle East -

1. The chaos that is the middle east will continue unabated. CK
2. Afghanistan will a) see the Taliban’s continue  retake this poor nation CK and b) America will fashion a last minute deal to keep its troops there for at least another year. B-i – the Yanks for all intents and purposes have pulled out.  Whether or not the Taliban is ultimately successful in retaking all of the country will depend on Pakistan.
3. Iran will remain the biggest story of the year  – in other words, the question remains will it be allowed to continue with its building of nuclear weapons?   I do not see America having the commitment under Obama to take the steps needed to stop them. CK
4. Israel – a) is surrounded by Muslim Countries on fire and the fallout is encroaching upon their territory. Things will only worsen over 2014. CK  b) The biggest threat to Israel and indeed to the middle east is the danger posed should Iran successfully develop the bomb.  That being said – Israel would – if it has US backing – knock the heck out of Iran’s nuclear program.  But since it does not have America’s backing the question for this year – is will it go it alone? For me – it depends on whether or not the current agreement with Iran – the US et al is resolved successfully.  If it breaks down – I can see Israel going it alone against Iran in 2014. EX – the US and Iran have extended their ill fated negotiation so things have just moved into 2015.  It does not look very promising.  c) a proposed agreement, currently under discussion between Israel and Palestine – and brokered by the USA – will crash and burn like all those before it. CK
5. Syrian - leader Bashar al Assad has been able to reinforce his position over the course of last year and accordingly will not be defeated in 2014 … the civil war will though continue unabated. The only thing which could have tip the balance against him would have been the entry of NATO which did not / will not happen. CK – NATO has finally intervened but it is difficult to know exactly whose side it is on.
6. Egypt – The Military will continue its just war against the Muslim Brotherhood.  Violence will continue in their streets but this is the best thing to have have happened in the Middle East in a long time.  The Military has identified the enemy and has taken the measures needed to address Muslim Terrorism.  This has the best chance for resulting in a peaceful middle east hopefully sometime in the not too distant future. CK

Overall I am quite happy with the outcomes of this past year’s predictions and certainly believe they were better than the ones I had for 2013.

I will do something for 2015 but I am going to take a different approach.

Before closing I would like to just make some general comments in regard to this upcoming year.

First, the Middle East will continue to burn.  Russia will continue to threaten their former members and the threat will rise now that Putin’s leadership is threatened by falling oil prices.

The Little Man in the White House – will continue to reign as the worst president in American history and will be even more dangerous given that he is not restricted by needing to be re-elected.

Closer to home – the Wynne Government – the worst in Ontario History will not disappoint as they continue to make our Province the basket case of Confederation. 

And on the national scene – it is too early to tell how the votes will fall out in this year’s upcoming election.  All that we know now is that both the Tories and the Grits are competitive and the Dippers appear to be on a downward trend – but as they say – a week is a long time in politics making 10 months a life time.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

Some Quickies …

 

CUBA

Or as the late JFK would say – Cubrr.

Obama has for once in his Presidency done the right thing although it will do nothing to help his image that he continues to sell out to dictators and evil generally.

I will still not go to Cuba – even if I was paid to go - since it remains a repressive regime.  I feel the same way about Red China.

My stomach churns when I hear fellow Canadians say that Americans will now ruin Cuba given what boors they are.  Maybe my fellows should look in a mirror first.

WILDROSE

Appears to be disintegrating as most of their Alberta MLAs have crossed the floor to the Ruling Tories.

How dishonourable and how short-sighted when what our country needs is a truly conservative party – one that stands for the smallest government as possible and balanced budgets.

It is far too early to determine whether or not Jim Prentice and company will in fact achieve that and unless and until this happens the Wildrose should just stay in place.

DANIELLE SMITH

One of the traitors who crossed the floor was none other than the Wildrose Leader herself.

If the woman had even a smidgeon of conscience she should have resigned and gone knitting.

NATIVITY SCENE

A big kerfuffle here in Ottawa when the General Hospital announced that after 100 years it would not be putting up the Nativity Scene in its lobby.

‘Religion has no place in secular society .. don’t you know’.

The hospital got it part right – if it was a new hospital – there’d may no need for Christ at Christmas – but they forgetting history – custom and tradition.

The Ottawa General Hospital was founded by Elizabeth Bruyere – a Roman Catholic Nun and the tradition of the Nativity Scene in her honour has gone on for over 100 years.

And we today are but a collection of our traditions and customs that have gone on before.

Happily the Hospital announced today that it had rethought its position – i.e. after fielding complaints from many outraged patrons – and has decided to erect the Scene once again.

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ONE AND ALL

‘Galagher’

 

The Ontario Separate School Board…

 

Caves… again.

There is something out there that does not like the Roman Catholic Church operating its own System of Schools and I fear that the day is quickly coming when it will exist no more.

I say this in spite of the fact there is a constitutional basis for its existence.  My fear is that society would lose since the Catholic system is a far superior to the public one run by the Provincial Government; scholastically it outperforms the provincial system by a wide margin, it instils morals and values in its students and these results combine to attract students from all sectors of society including large numbers from the ethnic communities.

And dear reader, it spends only $8,000 per student annually compared to the provincial boards annual average of over $12,000.

I have said many times that what the province needs to do is give vouchers to parents – e.g $10,000 per student and let the parents decide where best to send their children. You would quickly see the provincial run system shape up as well as see true competition for the education bucks allocated to our children.

But sadly we are talking power here – power for the teachers and their unions and Provincial Government - so the likelihood of this happening is most remote.

But I am getting away from what I started writing today about … i.e the cave-in.

Over the past few weeks, a Separate School here in Ottawa has been entangled in a media frenzy over denying two of its grade 6 students from doing a school project on homosexuals and how society discriminates against them.  If completed, the project would then be presented by these two students to children in grades 4, 5 and 6.  Quite young all things considered and surely there are more age appropriate things to occupy their young minds.

But in the face of such opposition, the Board caved and let the presentation proceed. 

And bear in mind, that the Roman Catholic Church finds homosexuality to be abnormal; although it does not though believe homosexuals to be either bad or of lesser value.

And I share the Church’s opinion.

I believe, as does the Church that our society is best served when a family consists of a mother, a father and a child(ren). Indeed, until very recently, that has been society’s position for millennia.  It is just been with the coming of the 2,00s that our politicians stopped proclaiming this from the mountain tops.

Boy what a difference a decade or two makes.

But the traditional family has been under attack for much longer than that.  Today American stats show that over 70% of Black Women have children out of wedlock – with multiple fathers. This breakdown has led to millions of Blacks dropping out of society into a life of crime.

Even with white society this number has climbed to a third.

A question for you – do you think society is better off in the face of this development?

Nor do I.

And now we layer on ‘marriage’ for non heterosexuals.

I may be wrong but I cannot help but think society will be poorly served by this latest development.

Maybe for the last many hundreds of years humanity got its priorities all wrong when it came to marriage and the rearing of children.

I doubt it, but maybe I am just being an olde foggy here.  But one thing is for certain, there is much at stake here and, for better or worse, future society will be dramatically different from the way it was in 1960 and how it is today.

And it is not very likely the Roman Catholic School Board will be part of that future. 

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’   

 

Are There No Prisons … No Workhouses …

 

Just Call Me Scrooge

My wife and I just returned from grocery shopping and we had to negotiate the usual line-up of ‘good causes’ vying for our charitable dollars.

Tables at the entrance – cashiers with their hands out for this, that, or other donation and even charity packers for their pet organization.

Last eve the same when I went for some dinner wine – the cashier asks in front of a cast of thousands for money for the local hospital.  I grit my teeth and say no thank you. (this after running the gauntlet of beggars lined up at the entrance and exit of the store).

I am tired of it –plain and simple.

Last week’s big fundraiser at Loblaws was for the Food Bank and we gave generously to that despite my belief that food banks in general are demeaning.  There pitch is that “no one’s plate should be empty at Christmas”.

So what are we to take from that – empty the rest of the year is A-OK?

The first chain store that outlaws begging within its 4 walls can count on me to patronize their store.

I view food – like water and air to be a human right and as such should not depend on charity.  The States use food stamps and I think we should go that type of route.

Here in Ottawa recent studies show that there are some 35 separate organizations tending to the needs of the homeless.  It all seems like just a way to generate employment; the homeless must be outnumbered 3 to 1 .. perhaps more.  

A major story appears in today’s National Post saying there are some 86,000 + Charities in Canada alone and that too many consume most of their charitable income in overhead and fundraising.  In other words – their real motivation if not a scam is to line the pockets of a select few.

According to Revenue Canada statistics my wife and I donate much more than most – we give to our church and through a branch of the church support needy children overseas where real poverty exists.

When there is trouble overseas we give to Red Cross, when crisis at home – to the Salvation Army and for good causes in our local city – to the United Way.

So here is what I suggest, we all band together and when those numerous hands reach out  (unless it is one you know and want to support) – just say “we give to the Red Cross, to the Salvation Army and to United Way ...thank you very much’'.

As I see it…

‘K. D. Galagher’

 

Michaelle and the Francophonie…

 

Last week we learned that our former Gov Gen’l, Michaelle Jean, has been appointed the Secretary General of La Francophonie – a most aptly named organization given its infestation with crooked, human rights abusing leaders of state.

In fairness, the Commonwealth has its share of these bozos but not to the same extent.

From its Web Site, the following:

The International Organisation of La Francophonie was created in 1970. Its mission is to embody the active solidarity between its 77 member states and governments (57 members and 20 observers), which together represent over one-third of the United Nations’ member states and account for a population of over 890 million people, including 220 million French speakers.

Canada supplies three (3) of those 77 member states.

How so, you might well ask? Well there is Canada of course as well as the States Quebec and New Brunswick.  Will Ontario - with its 4% Francophone population - be next?

(When I wrote the above about Ontario - it was more tongue in check,  but minutes later I discovered the following in my additional research on this august body: As of 2004, a government representative from Ontario also attends as part of the Canadian delegation, although Ontario is not yet a participating government in its own right).

How much does Canada pay to support La Francophonie?

Good question – I searched and searched and could not find the answer to this most reasonable question.  All I could find is that in 2013 Canada paid out more than $1 Billion Dollars to a number of La Francophonies’ Member States.

As a guess – I’d bet that next to the Mother Country itself -France, Canada is the Organization’s major benefactor and would not be that surprised to learn that we pay in even more than does France.

Enough said here other than it appears that Jean and the Francophonie make a good match.

By now you have probably guessed that I am somewhat biased against the newly minted Secretary General.  This dates back to her appointment as Governor General when I believed her to be sorely lacking in qualification. To add insult to injury you may recall at that time that there was much speculation that our newest GG was also a separatist like her husband.

But in fairness to the dear woman – this was not entirely her fault but rather that of her benefactor – the Rt. Hon. Paul Marin.  Are you listening sir?

But she secured a subsequent appointment which I  supported;  her June 2010 designation as the UN’s special envoy to Haiti.  Here is what Ms. Jean had to say then:

“ The Time has come for a change of paradigm in Haiti. We have to break away from the logic of assistance, dependency and quasi-trusteeship which has made Haiti a laboratory of all experiences, trials and errors and deficient strategies that have never produced anything that endures.”

I take it that with her latest gig – she must believe she has helped in changing the old paradigm to something new and more sustaining?

And let’s not forget her November 2011 appointment as Chancellor for Ottawa University. 

Does it seem to you as it does to me that once these types get in the public trough it is virtually impossible to get them out?

But my real displeasure in this is in regard to Haita since as mentioned – that was one appointment where I thought Madame Jean might in fact do some good – her being an immigrant from the poor country and now well connected throughout Canada and indeed the world.

So if she thinks her work there is done – as she must since I cannot otherwise fathom how she could move on from that important role – here is what the experts have to say:

NPR New from earlier this year – 4 years after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit Haita destroying its capital Port au Prince and killing more that 200,000, Haiti looks much the same today as it did then – Nearly 150,000 still live in temporary plastic and plywood structures.

So if Madame Jean thinks her work there is done – she is sorely mistaken.

And where did all the money go that poured into Haiti in those fearful days after the quake.

I am not suggesting Jean has anything to do with that issue since I believe her to be honest if not somewhat naive but I think she could have done a better job and could still if she would just focus on the most important job at hand.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’ 

 

HARPER IS MIA …

 

When it comes to dealing with the West’s Oil.

Andrew Coyne writes a great column in today’s National Post – indeed most of his columns are great – about the Feds being Missing in Action when it comes to the Oil Debate and more particularly the establishment of pipelines to take that oil safely and speedily to both internal and external markets.

Sadly his dithering may have been an even more costly mistake given the recent collapse in the price per barrel.

Everyone is in the fight – the loudest are those opposed – the environmentalists both here in Canada and the United States – oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and of course many of our provinces including our two largest Ontario and Quebec – both of whom are have-nots as in $.

It has been said many times but is worth repeating here that Canada’s transfer payments to our 7 have-not and 3 Territories comes from oil money generated primarily in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

So these dear have-nots would rather cut of their collective noses to spite their faces than support the hands that feed them.  No more clichés - I promise.

The recent collapse of in oil prices is also now putting in jeopardy Canada’s next year’s anticipated budget surplus.

Harper has only himself to blame for this.

He and his Government has stood by while everyone else has entered the ‘oil pipeline’ fray.

And dear reader – it is his and only his Government that has the power to deal with this most important issue.

More recently the only thing Canada has had in its favour economically is its resources – primarily its oil and natural gas.  More recently our collapsing dollar has given a much needed lift to the ailing manufacturing sector.

And yet thanks to the Government – this advantage has been squandered.

Why so?

I think Harper and company are afraid of a left wing backlash if he / they were to get dirty so to speak and get directly involved.

But you what – that is what leadership is all about.

And I would be if he had got directly involved – the majority of Canadians would have backed him to the hilt.  Leftist Activists can wallow unemployed in the dark but the most of us – good jobs and warm houses trumps all.

All this said- it is still not too late for Harper to get off his rump and do what is right. Even if it involves invoking the War Measures Act to get those pipelines through and even if it entails posting soldiers along every inch of those lines to protect them from terrorists.

If I was Harper here is what I would do:

I’d go on national television to say to the Canadian People that the time has come to put through our pipelines from Coast to Coast to Coast and to the US Border.

I would mention all of the studies including the McKenzie Pipeline Study that expended decades to no avail.

I would also mention the millions of foreign money coming into Canada to fund the opponents.

I tell Canadians that we are most fortunate to have been able to help the less fortunate areas of Confederation in the past – but that with so many of our Provinces in have-not status and with falling oil revenue the day is quickly coming when these transfers will have to be seriously cut of disbanded with entirely.

I would end the program by saying our very economic survival as a nation is at stake and that accordingly our Government is going to use every ounce of its strength to see that our oil gets to market.

Harper would be guaranteed a majority government in the following election.

But even if he did not – it would be the right thing for him to do as leader and more importantly – the right thing to do for our country.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’

  

Where Have All The Tories Gone …

 

Long time passing?

At the federal level Harper is by far the best of the lot but even he and his cohorts cast a shade of pink.

He put the country in great debt and then on the cusp of a surplus – spends every nickel.

Could not some of it gone to reduce the outrageous debt – $600+ billion?

And then the godfather of Reform – none other than the revered Presto Manning has come out for cap and trade.

He who upon election was not going to live at Stornaway, was not going to have a car and driver, was going to renounce the rich MP Pensions etc etc etc until he quickly decided to do otherwise.

And his co pig at the trough – the first Reform MP – Debra Gray too renounced the MP pension – up to the point when she retired - at which time dear debbie pounced on it like red meat.

And now we find ourselves in a Tory Leadership race in Ontario.

The main contender – Christine Elliott leans way to the left.  The only two who may have real Tory credentials are Monte McNaughton and Patrick Brown but it remains to be seen just how deep those credentials go.

You may well say Galagher – you are cutting off your nose to spite your face given that 2/3 rds of Canadians see themselves as left of centre – and you may well be right but for me that is not the issue.

Rather the issue comes down to the fact that Canada is broke – Ontario is broke as are the majority of the other provinces and yet our governments continue to grow and suck more and more money from the private sector where it could be used to create real jobs and real economic growth.

We don’t need more pink and red – rather we need leadership that points out the best government is the least government – one that pays its way and leaves the taxpayer with more of his or her own money.  Today figures indicate that the average taxpayers are paying 50% of their income in various taxes.

No wonder more and more people are opting out of the workforce and living off the avails of others who are more ambitious.

And without someone representing the right side the voter will continue to think that Big Is Better and that the Gravy Train Will Run Forever.

As I have said in other blogs – there are worse things than losing and one of those things is winning without principle.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’