I WAS WRONG.
Simply put – it would have been a disaster to have had the NDP and Liberals gang up to form the Government.
My Analysis was based solely on the Polls which up until Election Day showed the Conservatives in Minority Territory.
Something happened during the last 24 hrs and I like to think of it being the Hand of God – moving to protect our beloved Country for the next 4 years.
As I see it…
Galagher
The Pundits Up.
A recap – Ekos came out yesterday with a Poll showing the Tories @ 33.7 % – the NDP @ 28% and Liberals @ 23.7 %.
It would be quite shocking – if only it was Accurate.
Rest easy though since It Is Not.
The Tories have not run a spectacular campaign – but they have held their own and their core following is in tact; that is to say in the very high 30 per centile.
The NDP has caught fire in Quebec – and I have no clue as to why, other than the fact that Quebecers are merely leaving one Socialist Group – ie the Bloc – for another – the NDP.
The Liberals have not run particularly well and Ignatieff continues to be the least popular Leader but although they are in decline they are by no means in collapse.
All this to say – as I have continued to say – the Tories remain in the high 30s and the Layton and Ignatieff are splitting the balance more or less evenly albeit with an edge to the NDP at this point.
The only question remaining for me is whether after May 2nd there will be a Majority Tory Gov’t or a Coalition between the other Two.
That said, I have never seen an Election where the majority of the Pundits are so dumbfounded: they readily admit that they have no idea what the make-up of the next Parliament will be.
I had promised to publish my prediction on Sunday but given the interest and the conflicting polls will do so over the course of this Saturday.
If the Libs and NDP do in fact form the new Government – especially with Jack Layton as PM – Canada will spiral down as is currently the case with our neighbours to the South.
Pretty Scary Stuff..
As I see it …
‘Galagher’
Following my Everglades Blog – no one came forward to ask if I had experienced other such Adventures on our recent Florida Holiday.
We did in fact – but given your lack of interest I will not be telling you about them.
In Particular, I will not tell you about my Deep Sea Fishing Outing with Skipper Dan.
I won’t recall how we (me) and a crowd of 2 others -gathered on the Dock – after paying another King’s Ransom for an Outing.
Only to be told by Skipper Dan (we all soon just called him ‘Skipper’) that we were wasting our time since for the past week no one, on his boating outings, had been successful in catching a fish. (at least Billy Bob waited until we were on route before giving us the bad news)
And Skipper Dan did not offer to return our money – even though I did make the request.
A little background here would help.
The Ad for this Deep Sea Adventure stated that the crew – i.e. the Skipper since he was all there was – “would clean any fish we caught” so we could take our harvest home and BBQ it for dinner – with no doubt lots left over for following nights.
Anne and I had been ‘restauranting’ each evening so this night would be different – I would catch our dinner and cook it – the Skipper would do the Cleaning.
That was the Theory of course – as a back-up – just in case.. I told Anne to meet me after our Fishing Excursion outside a nearby Restaurant in the Unlikely Event I came up empty in the Fish Department.
Okay now let’s not go back to the Dock (remember – I am not telling you this Story for Lack of Interest).
We all (the 3 of us) and the Skipper scrambled on board. We got the usual pitch where the life jackets etc are and off we went.
Some 45 minutes after departure we dropped anchor.
“How deep do you think it is here”? I ask Skipper.
“Four, maybe Six Feet”.
And you call this Deep Sea Fishing – I thought.
At least I did not need to worry about Life Jackets – I could walk / bob in that depth.
But low and behold we start to catch fish.
The Skipper is ecstatic – his week’s drought has come to an end.
On a sadder note though, he classifies each fish we catch as being “non-edible”.
We must have anchored at a half dozen different spots throughout the day and wouldn’t you know it – every fish we caught, regardless of where, was tainted with the Skipper’s “non-edible” designation.
This included fish such as the succulent Sea Bass that Anne and I had been so enjoying over the course of our stay.
To say that I was suspicious was an under-statement.
Soon our time was up. With ‘threw back’ the last of our catch and returned to Port.
The Skipper wished us all – you know the three of us – a bon farewell and just before parting provided each of us with a bag containing brochures about the Adventure that he would appreciate us handing out to friends and passers by.
With bag in hand, I made my way to our Restaurant rendez-vous where I found Anne patiently awaiting me.
She smiled at seeing me approach and then frowned when she noticed the bag.
“Oh no” she pronounced.. “you didn’t actually catch fish”.
“Well yes I did – but don’t look so crestfallen – this is only a bag of brochures”.
“Thank God” she exclaimed, as we sauntered into the Bar.
So again, I am sorry that I could not relate the above story to you.
Nor will I be telling you about our adventures on the new Harry Potter Ride at Universal Studios.
My not doing so, in that case, has less to do with your lack of interest as it does will the nausea I still feel whenever I think back to that Ride from Hell.
As I see it…
‘Galagher’
Americans – as are we all – are most disturbed about the rising cost of gasoline now in the neighbourhood of $1.30 cdn. plus for a mere litre and in the case of the US – $5.00 a gallon.
We are right to be concerned since high oil costs will spell the end of our fragile economic recovery.
But Obama is wrong in his thinking that his Investigation will discover mass speculation – rather the cause of the on going spike is Obama’s own policies.
To be more precise – it is due to his out of control spending and out of control printing of money.
These two policy initiatives have combined to devalue the US Buck and since the world commodities are priced in US Dollars – the faster their buck drops, the faster the commodities rise in price.
Simply stated – if the dollar drops 10% in value – the price of a barrel of oil can be expected to increase by 10%.
So that in a nut-shell is the problem. Obama can save some money by shutting down his inquiry before it even begins.
And it is not just things like Oil that are going up.
Gold and Silver are on a tear too. This week Gold surpassed $1,500 an oz while silver soared to nearly $50.
One Wag was quoted in the Financial Papers today as saying these Rare Minerals are due for a collapse because they have risen too quickly.
He points out that their rise can be attributed primarily to all the media attention it has been getting – i.e. Gordon Liddy’s “Buy Gold Now”. That is to say – that sales have been artificially spurred up.
But like Obama, he has got it wrong.
These metals are continuing to rise in value in parallel with the increasing US and European Debt and with their declining currencies.
You will know that earlier this week Standard and Poors placed the USA on a Credit Watch the end of which will likely see America’s credit rating diminished. Such an action will see their cost of borrowing increase which in turn will see their debt rise and dollar devalue even more.
It goes on and on.
Look at Greece for instance.
In order to sell their Bonds – they are now obliged to pay 23% interest and even at that – they are not getting many takers because the financial community knows that the end result will most likely be Default in Payment.
What a mess.
And until the West gets its financial House in Order – it will most certainly continue.
As will the Rise in Oil and Gold.
As I see it….
‘Galagher’
Though in our case, it should have been Alligators – Water Moccasins and Rattle Snakes.
For the past few weeks Anne and I have been vacationing in South Florida, on the cusp of the Everglades.
One fair day we decided to take an Air Boat Ride into the deepest darkest Glades.
With visions of the above critters racing through our minds, we doubled our Life Insurance and updated our Wills – then off we went.
We paid for an hour adventure and off we went with Billy-Bob (BB) our Guide.
We braced ourselves as BB twisted and turned and spun the craft in reckless abandon throughout the mighty swamp stopping at various strategic intervals to allow us to take in the sites.
After the third stop though I began to become suspicious that we were being ‘taken for a ride’ - so to speak.
At each stop – BB waxed elegant about the Flora – you know the unique trees and grasses and flowers that can be found within the Glades.
Okay I thought – what about the Man-Killing Reptiles –why were we talking about plants of all things – I was there to see these Killers.
So I asked Billy-Bob – “where the heck were they”?
“Not here” – he responded – the water was not fit for such animal life.
“Fish” – I asked?
“Not really” he replied – “only the odd bottom feeder”.
“Any Birds"?
“Not without Fish”.
So let me get this straight – we drove some distance and spent a considerable sum to take a ride through the renowned Everglades – to view plants!!
I was embarrassed – though Anne did not seem to mind. Chalk it up to the difference between men and women.
So I changed the topic with Billy-Bob, for no other reason than to move on from my disappointment.
“How do you keep from getting lost in here”? I asked. “It all looks the same”.
BB responded by saying he has it memorized.
“How can you possibly memorize miles and miles of swamp”? I asked.
Honest to a fault, Billy-Bob allowed that we had simply been covering and recovering the same ground (swamp). In fact, he told us, his company leases a rectangular piece of the Glades no longer than 1 /2 mile in length.
So once again I am crestfallen – here I had thought we had been let loose on miles and miles of untamed Swamp and now I find out we have been limited to a postage stamp size, well travelled and life devoid Parkette.
I was so glad to get back to civilization – back on the busy highways where true danger really lurks.
As I see it…
’Galagher’
Some Non-Surprises.
At this mid-way point in the Federal Election a few Surprises for me.
First, I am surprised that the Liberals have not collapsed more quickly under Ignatieff…. indeed, he has campaigned much better than I had expected.
Second, the Bloc is not doing as well as I had thought. They will still take the majority of seats in Quebec but at this point their seat count from last time would be down and they would not be in a position to become the Official Opposition.
Third, the Green Party is in collapse and although I did not expect them to do a well as they did last time, I thought their base would hold up better than it has.
Now the Non-Surprises:
I expected that the NDP would rise over the course of the Election – at the expense of the Liberals and this has been happening. This is likely to continue until Election Day and with the Regional Split in Votes – there may be a dead heat for second place between this 2 Parties when the dust settles.
What is clear at this point is that both Parties have a shot at becoming the Official Opposition.
The other Non-Surprise relates to the Tories – they started in the high 30s and they continue to enjoy (?) those numbers. These numbers are not likely to fall since, for the most part, they consist of their base support.
If they do hold – or go even higher (which is possible), a Majority for the Tories is the most likely outcome on May 2nd.
(I will still make a prediction on the final tallies on or about Sunday, May 1, 2011).
As I see it ….
‘Galagher’