Trudeau was correct about the average MP...

They are "nobodies off the Hill".

This sad state of affairs continues to the present. Anything of importance is controlled from the 'Centre' - that is to say the Prime Minister's Office or the Office of the Leader of the Opposition.

The average MP is little more than the oft stated 'Trained Seal'.

And Democracy suffers accordingly.

Permit me to explain.

Way back when - when I studied Political Science, one of the primary functions of an MP was to represent the interests of their constituents. With the advent of Trudeau and PMs since, power has concentrated in the Party Leaders Offices. MPs are told how what to say and how to vote. Those who depart from script are jettisoned from Caucus and are forced to become Independents.

As an example of this is former Tory MP Bill Casey. Casey voted against the Tory Government Budget of 2007 since he believed the Tory's had defaulted on their commitment to provide enhanced oil and gas revenues to his province Nova Scotia. He was so popular with his riding that he ran and won the following election as an Independent but subsequently left federal politics since there is really little an independent MP can accomplish in a sea of seals.

We need more Bill Caseys - but ones with clout and here is how I propose to see that happen.

Give them more power!! Provide them with budgets that will enable them to do proper research. Currently budgets barely allow for their offices to handle lost passport cases.

Institute a Committee Process that is separate and apart from the Government. Like the ones you see in the American Congress. They are off track on many fronts but their Congressional Committees are most effective.

Individual MPs, as part of an Independent Committee Structure, will at last find that they have real power on the Hill, in their Constituencies and in the Country generally.

This will Cost a lot you say. Quite Correct.

But sometimes to operate at budget rates achieves little and actually precludes progress.

That said, some of the money for such an initiative could come from scrapping the totally ineffective and undemocratic Senate.

It would also help reverse the trend in government of appointing non elected Czars to do the work of your average MP.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

Predictions for 2011....

First though, please refer back to my Blog of 12/31/09 entitled 'Some Random Predictions' where I set out my Predictions for 2010. As you will see, I have added some commentary.



I had not viewed this Blog since written so was a little concerned about its accuracy but on balance found that it had been quite accurate.



Let's hope I can do as well for 2011.



Here Goes:





Politics

• Elections at the Federal and Ontario levels will see Harper victorious while the Provincial Libs will be decimated by the Hudak Progressive Conservatives. Harper, although victorious, will fall slightly short of his long sought majority and I fully expect the national election will take place this Spring.


• In the USA, the Republicans will launch their campaign to unseat President Obama in 2012. I predict that Mitt Romney will come out of 2011 in the lead (he should have been their Leader in 2008). The Tea Party will continue to be the King Makers.


• I will go out on a limb and predict that Britain will be forced into another General Election and if so, the Tories will emerge with a working majority.


• Berlusconi will cease to be Prime Minister of Italy - at last

Economy

• The US$ will continue to decline due to their horrendous debt.


• The Canadian $ will stay above Par.


• The Canadian Economy will out perform the US.


• The European Contagion will continue to spread throughout that Continent and this coming year it will envelope the US.. (i.e. credit ratings will continue to fall)


• Interest rates will finally begin to rise for instance, here in North America, 5 year mortgage rates will climb to 5 - 6 %.


• Oil will average $100 a barrel and more.


• Gold / Silver / Copper will continue to outperform and will reach record levels.


• China will continue to Outpace the Pack which will insure that it will sooner, rather than later, succeed the US as the world's ultimate power.


• Over Legislation / Regulation will finally begin to slow - sadly it will take more time to see it begin to reverse.


• The numbers of Civil Servants and their Salaries will begin their descent.


• Social Welfare Programs will stall and then they too will begin their decline.

World Affairs

• Terrorism will continue with softer targets (read crowds).


• Haiti will continue to suffer as will Africa.


• Afghanistan will more or less stalemate as long as NATO (read USA) remains committed as they will for the coming year.


• Last year I suggested that Iran would be the big story of 2010 and it will continue to be so this coming year. Time has been bought by successful efforts to infect their computer systems. Hopefully, this time will allow for a Regime Change but I do not see that happening in 2011.


• The Greater Story this year could well be the Koreas. A Nut Bar leads the North and the South is tiring of continuing concessions. It is a powder keg set to go off. As in the case of Iran - steps need to be taken by the West (read USA) to block further Nuclear Development on the part of both rouge nations.


• Russia will continue to descend into Dictatorship with Putin continuing to perform the role of Dictator.


• Airport / Border Security will continue to thicken in the face of loss of Freedom / Privacy.


• Democracies will be upstaged Communist / Dictatorship Governments.


• The backlash against Immigration will see the Right in Europe grow in strength as will their laws designed to neutralize the Muslim effect.


• Persecution against both Christians and Jews will accelerate and both their Religions will continue to be under attack throughout the world.

Generally Speaking

This coming year will be a most difficult one. The chickens are coming home to roost and precious few are ready to deal with the consequences. Greater Civil Unrest Can Be Expected.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

Investmentisms...for 2011

With all the year end prognostications I got to thinking - what would happen if a woman news anchor (Sandy), with no background in business - attempted to interview a seasoned financial guru (Mr. Dow Jones)?



Maybe it would go something like this:



I am pleased this evening to have as our guest Mr. Dow Jones who will share with us all his views on the economy for the coming year.



Mr. Jones thank you so much for joining us.



You are most welcome.



Let me begin by asking you generally what you see in store for us in 2011?



Well as a renowned Bear you can just imagine what I have to say so you won't be surprised if I tell you that I believe that currently we have an Ovobody Market.

Please proceed.

I am also a well known Contrarian so don't expect my comments to follow the crowd.

Be assured Mr. Jones that I do not harbour any such expectations. Now what precisely can our audience expect for next year in the markets?

We are going to see much of what has taken place in 2010 that is to say: flashing, one night stands, swaps and stripping.


Well Mr. Jones we are in polite society so I would ask you to please keep your comments civil.


Eh? There are certain things that as a Contrarian I am specifically looking for and that is such things as a Hot Waitress or Fools in the Shower.

I strongly suggest Mr. Jones that you keep your private life out of today's conversation. Now let's get back to our topic - what in particular will need to happen to see the markets advance in 2011?

Treponomics.

Treponomics?

Correct.

Will that tell us we are on the right path.

Yes and No.

Yes and No?

Correct.

Would you please expand on that.

Gladly. Yes Treponomics is the answer but it is a very slow process so it could take a number of years before we can gauge its success.

So we won't know for sure if it is working in 2011

Precisely not. But it must get started in 2011 to be effective so we will begin eventually to see improved EBITDA.

EBITDA?

Exactly.

Okay let me come at it from a different angle. Is there anything that could happen in 2011 that would tell you that things are likely to improve?

Of course there is - one could look for a Jennifer Lopez.

A Jennifer Lopez? What pray tell is that.

A nice Round Bottom of course.

Mr. Jones I will not warn you again.

Sandy I am beginning to see that you have not done sufficient Concepting.

There is no need to insult me Dow, I am doing my best, so let's just try to get through this - we have but a couple of minutes left. We hear alot about Index Trading do you have any favourites?

Two of my favourites are Paris Hilton and Lipstick.

Why am I not surprised. Any favourite Bonds?

I guess I would have to say the Chasity Bond.

Well given your other comments that does come as a surprise to me. Is there anything the ordinary investor can do to grown his or her Portfolio?



I would suggest a combination of Arbitrage and Forex. The financial world is getting smaller, so I would recommend to your viewing audience that these types of investments would be to their overall benefit.



Arbitrage and Forex?



Yes.



Are they listed on the Stock Markets.



Quite the sense of humour you have Sandy. In all seriousness though - for 2011 many businesses will have to adopt detailed Scalping Strategies.



Scalping Strategies? Like the Indians?



You are indeed refreshing Sandy but I do hope there are not too many Aboriginal Investors out there in your television audience.



Oh my. Let's conclude our interview with one final question Dow. Um, if there is one piece of advice you can leave our audience with - what would that be?



Buy low - Sell high.



Well that is certainly something we can all understand. Thank you so much. And perhaps Dow you could leave me your cell phone number in case I have any follow-up questions.



As I see it...



'Galagher'

Something Good About The 60s...

The Emancipation of Women.

I have been oft critical about the 60s and how things seem to have down hill since then, but there is one trend that began then which has benefited our Society greatly and that is the coming out of women into main stream society.

More specifically, women began to join the workforce in great numbers with the result today that nearly 50% of our workforce is female.

This trend started in the 60s and accelerated with the high inflation of the 1970s. No longer could families be sustained on only one pay cheque.

There was a downside and that was the lack of women staying at home and the social repercussions it caused and continues to cause today to our children, but in the sense of fairness, a woman should not be expected to sacrifice herself for others - even her own children.

The greater benefit though has been to Society generally since to deny half of the population access, is to ensure that Society only operates at 50 % capacity.

We are what we are today - one of the world's leading countries - due to the fact that we have utilized the skills and abilities of 100% of our citizens. This in stark contrast to those world nations that deny women their rightful place in society and those countries suffer accordingly.

Indeed, in the liberated world, Women have in many cases surpassed their Male Counterparts - take Education for example where women now out number males in post graduate studies - often by large per centages. It provides us Males with an incentive to pull up our socks and try harder.

So as much as I have been critical of developments dating back to the 60s this is one very important area where we have all greatly benefited.

As I see it...

'Galagher'

The Green Energy Fiasco...

Ontario Hydro Users are looking at a doubling and tripling of their monthly hydro bills and have only Dolton McGuinty and his Green Energy Advisors to blame.



Daily calls come into local talk radio attesting to the fact that some Hydro Subscribers are wearing winter clothing inside and burning candles in a desperate bid to keep warm and to keep some lights on.



All the while a select few are receiving 10 x their energy costs back in rebates for providing wind and solar power.



And now we learn that cheap electric power has been available all along to Ontario from neighbouring Quebec and Manitoba. Six (6) cents per kilowatt hour and with no need to upgrade the current grid.



McGuinty's mistakes are too numerous to list but this one tops them all. Tens of billions of dollars have been and will continue to be wasted with his poorly thought out Energy Programme.



The sooner he and his Spendthrift Government is gone - the better.



That said, I look forward to hear what the Provincial Tory and NDP leaders have to say on this important subject.



Ontario Hydro has been mismanaged for the past 30 years and more. Senior Management is grossly overpaid and Union Contracts are out of control.



Privatization is the answer and cheaper sources of clean energy the goal.



As I see it....



'Galagher'

Some more Quickies...

First Wikileaks:

More "top secret" e-mails revealed. For example, China apparently has no way to accurately determine its annual GDP. Since the world's monetary system is based on how National GDPs are doing I am sure that such information will be invaluable to the business community. Score another one for Wikileaks.

Speaking of China - we are also told that it is supplying Iran with armaments. Nice to know.

I think much of what Wikileaks is all about is that Governments simply do not have much trust in their own citizens.


Haiti:

Continues to fall apart. Nothing much has been done toward reconstruction since their major earthquake and now thousands are dying from drinking tainted water.

And to top it off, their recent Election has resulted in riots in the streets.

You may recall in my Blog, at the time of their Quake, I said the only cure for Haiti is a United Nations (read USA / Canada) enforced Martial Law for at least 20 years to allow for the education of a knowledgeable and vibrant Middle Class. I also pointed out then that this would not happen and not surprising then, Haiti continues to suffer.


Ontario Landowners:

The head of the Ontario Landowners - Jack McLaren, tried to unseat Norm Sterling's Riding Association last week. They came within 150 votes of doing so and of note, 150 McLaren's supporters were denied the right to cast a ballot. Smell a rat?

McLaren is trying to bring the US Tea Party to Ontario and just like in the States - probably their greatest opponent is the Right of Centre Party - the Tories in Ontario and the Republican Party in the States. I suspect that it is not over yet for McLaren since his next battle will be taking aim at Sterling in next year's Nomination Meeting.

It is certainly not over for Tea Partyers encroaching into Canadian Politics. Hopefully the days of Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee Politics will soon come to an end. We simply cannot afford ($$$) much of the same too much longer.


Students Riot in England:

Charles and Camilla shaken up.

I deplore this type of action but I also am saddened by their Government's move to triple the University Tuitions to $15,000 per year. This coming from the guy who wants to see our governmental budgets balanced and taxes dramatically reduced.

But there are some things that simply cannot cost more and one of those is Education. We in this world are now firmly
in the Knowledge Age. Our future welfare is now tied to how our students perform more than ever. Students here in Canada are currently graduating with debt loads of $50 k and more. Imagine what would happen if our Tuitions were tripled?


Ottawa Policing:

I am getting tired of the excuses being made for the Police re those recently released videos. The same thing happened when the poor chap was tasered at the Vancouver Airport by the RCMP. Videos don't lie and those responsible should be cashiered and charged as soon as the films came to light. This from a fellow who in most cases supports the police.

As I see it..

'Galagher'

Wikileaks...

My Contrarian View.

As you may know by now, I do not tend to follow the crowd; chalk it up to the Libertarian in me.

Same goes for my thoughts on Wikileaks; I find them refreshing.

Well maybe "refreshing" is going overboard, but in truth I get a kick out of them.

Most - should I say virtually all reports I have read, be they from the Left or the Right, are in high dungeon about them and indeed several are literally calling for the Head of Wikileaks.

Tsk Tsk - I say bring it on. A little candid exposure concerning what our respective Ambassadorial Communities are up to is more helpful than harmful and provides for some unexpected candour and openness albeit involuntarily.

And what I have read so far chiefly consists of a series of derogatory comments about this Leader or That. All of which have been quite amusing and yet quite consistent with the man on the street's view.

The Leaks have also served another useful function - they have shown America's Diplomatic Communications to be - well - 'Leaky', and if Wikileaks can get it hands on these communications so can others with less friendly hands.

But for the moment we can read and enjoy what our respective governing classes think of each other. And it is not pretty.

Openness and Candor in Societies though can only serve to educate the people which in turn allows them to choose more wisely come Election Time. If it takes Wikileaks to help to this process along - so be it.

That said, I do not support the leakage of information that puts individuals' lives at risk as say in the case of operatives in the field but so far I have neither heard nor read of such happening here. Wikileaks would be wise to self censure such if that type of information came its way.

So put me down as one of its few current supporters.

As I see it..

'Galagher'