Sunday, January 10, 2010

Oops...Missed an important 2010 Prediction

One reader was kind enough to remind me that I had missed an important prediction for this new year.. And she was correct!



"Will Iran be allowed to become a nuclear nation in 2010"?



I guess I did not deal with this issue in my 2010 predictions since this is one area where I just don't know what to expect.



I can tell you though, if it was up to me, I would pound the Iranian Nuclear Installations into smithereens and would continue to blast away at them every time an attempt was made to rebuild.



But alas, it is not up to me.



What I do know, is that the world cannot afford to have any more unstable countries acquire nuclear weapons. It is scary enough with both North Korea and Pakistan having them.



I had thought that George W. Bush would have launched attacks against Iran's facilities in the dying days of his Presidency. I was wrong. Even his VP - Dick Cheney is on record as saying he begged George W to attack - all to no avail.



I suspect Bush's inaction was based on his attempt to preserve some stature in the face of continued and relentless attacks from the Left. He too was wrong to do that.



Accordingly, we are left with a very dangerous situation.



How can the West possibly let Iran have Nukes when their stated goal is to see the obliteration of Israel and indeed all of Jewry. Plus, Iran is the major backer of our common enemy Al Qaeda. Just imagine what would happen if Al Qaeda got its hands on small nukes!!! There goes New York...



And be assured, with Russia and China helping Iran behind the scenes - there are no other measures that can be successfully brought to bear against this rogue country.



So will Obama do what Bush failed to do. Not likely. His Leftist followers would not permit it and besides, I do not see it in his make-up. He will cling stubbornly to diplomacy, long after it has proved senseless.



It falls to Israel to act and yet I am not so sure they are prepared to go it alone. Heretofore they have known that, come what may, the United States would stand behind them but with the Obama Administration - it is no longer a certainty. Quite the opposite.

If nothing is done by either the States or Israel, this year will see Iran enter the Nuclear Age. With its unstable and radical Theocracy it can be assumed that sooner or later use will be made of these mass weapons of destruction. First against Israel and then against the West.

Indeed, I am not so sure that Iran does not already have nuclear capacity and thus it may be too late already.

Regardless, should an attack on their nuclear facilities come about, the World will incur a major economic shock - as oil prices rocket up to the $200 a barrel and stock markets around the Globe swoon.

Israel will be the target of numerous Iranian Missiles - hopefully only conventional ones - but even they will do great damage to such a small country.

So we are damned if we do and damned if we don't.

But far worse, I believe, if we don't; the time has come to take the gloves off with Iran and with Al Qaeda.

Will it happen?

I just don't know.

"Galagher"

Sunday, January 3, 2010

THE THREE UNWISE MEN

Barack Obama: Michael Ignatieff: Dalton McGuinty







Free Spenders All.





Obama and McGuinty run deficit budgets; Ignatieff would do the same if given the chance.





All three see salvation in spending even more.





Obama's claim to fame is the Trillion Dollars spent on the US Bailout and a further $ Trillion on Health Care. A Trillion here...a Trillion there.



To add insult to injury, he recently announced an additional $100 Billion to assist the Third World in attaining illusive carbon reduction targets. How much of that money will go towards such an objective and how much will go to line Petty Dictator Pockets? Or worse - to buy arms for use against NATO Forces?



The fact is - America is broke - flat busted. Its annual deficit now exceeds its annual GDP. It has the third highest per-capita debt behind only Japan and Italy for industrialized nations.



Their Dollar is tanking and will continue to do so - while Gold appreciates.



The USA has turned China, its main competitor - both economically and militarily, into their Banker.





McGuinty has not done much better.



For the first time in Canada's history, Ontario has become a 'Have-not' Province.



Since assuming office, he has run consecutive deficits, with this year's expected to top $25 Billion.



Recently, Premier McGuinty rejected the idea of 'Rae Days' (unpaid leave for Provincial Workers) and then turned down the request of the Mayor of Ottawa to see municipal employees wages frozen. The Cities too are going broke.



Does he not understand that Government Workers now receive 40% more in wages and benefits than their private sector counterparts? All the while enjoying job security, while the private sector is decimated through layoffs.

Reduction in public servant wages - without reducing numbers, provides an easy and humane way to begin to tackle the Provincial Debt.





That brings us to Ignatieff.



The only reason he has yet to run a deficit is that he has yet to be elected.



He did though play a large part in seeing Canada's current deficit of nearly $60 Billion come about after years of surplus budgets. Surplus Budgets I might add that were the result of hard work on the part of his own Party during the Chretien / Martin years.



He and his Liberal Colleagues were instrumental in forcing a very reluctant Harper into plunging the nation into a major deficit position.



When asked recently to comment on Conservative Party Plans to reduce spending, Ignatieff was quoted as saying the Deficit was not the problem - rather it was Unemployment and that if Elected, he would spend even more.



Does Ignatieff not realize that it is the Private Sector that creates jobs? Big Business; Small Business; and those in between - collectively represent the life blood of a nation.



Dollars spent by Governments are dollars denied to business and to taxpayers. Dollars that can make a real contribution to economic recovery.



And what happens when Rates Rise - as they surely will. As we well know here in Canada, the cost to fund the Debt will rise exponentially. It makes the cost of money more expensive for businesses and consumers alike and growth thereby suffers.



Finally, let us not forget, that Canada escaped the worst of the Great Recession because our Books were in Balance. I can tell you, we will not be so fortunate the next time if our government spending continues unchecked.

Two thousand years ago, the Wise Men brought valuable gifts for handout to a poor family in Bethleham. Today we see our Unwise men with their hands out, demanding ever more from our poor taxpayers - their children and their childrens' children.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Some Random Predictions for Next Year (2010)

With Some Trepidation I look back at my predictions for this past year:


In Politics:

Civic - Jim Watson will become the new Mayor of Ottawa. CORRECT

Provincial - McGuinty's popularity will continue to decline and we may well see his resignation prior to year's end. PARTIALLY CORRECT

Federal - There will not be an Election in 2010. Tory popularity will continue to rise and Harper will do his damnedest to force (embarrass) the Opposition Parties into voting non-confidence - but all to no avail. This effort will begin with Harper's March Budget. CORRECT

Obama's popularity will continue to decline and the Republicans will make major gains in both the House and the Senate this coming November. CORRECT


The Economy:

The markets in Canada, the United States and around the world will continue to improve CORRECT

The US $ though will continue to decline, while Gold will continue to rise in value. CORRECT

The Canadian $ will surpass the American buck CORRECT (BY THE SKIN OF A LOONEY'S TEETH)

Interest rates will rise significantly in both Canada and the United States and House prices in Canada will decline significantly. WRONG ON BOTH COUNTS

Oil prices will range between $60 and $80. PARTIALLY CORRECT - BUT VERY RECENTLY PRICES HAVE EXCEEDED $90.

Taxes will rise ...a no brainer. DAH


The Environment:

Will be much less an issue. BANG ON

Copenhagen will soon be forgotten and Al Gore will be increasingly discredited. CORRECT

The Oil Sands will be more widely accepted. CORRECT


Afghanistan and Terrorism:

The American Surge will prove successful and the fight against world terrorism will be stepped up. This will be due primarily to a conversion on the part of President Obama with him beginning to accept that the only way to deal with bad guys is through superior force. CORRECT

Acts of Terrorism will unfortunately be stepped up with some occurring in the United States itself. PARTIALLY CORRECT


On balance I think I did okay - you be the Judge. My Predictions for the coming year (2011) to follow.

As I see it...

Note: if there are any subjects that you believe I overlooked or if you wish reasons for my above predictions please just let me know.

"Galagher"

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The Day Santa Blew Into Town...

Or more accurately ...The Day His Parade Blew Out.



In my last Blog, I mentioned George Coling's Station Wagon - with the Loud Speakers on Top and it brought back Memories of Brighton's Santa Claus Parade on a Cold, Windy Saturday in late November in the very early 1960s.



Those were the days, in our small community, when the Parade's music came from sources other than a marching band - hence the need for Station Wagon & Loud Speakers.



In the week's leading up to the grand event, various organizations worked diligently in the preparation of their respective Floats - local Church Organizations, Scouts and Guides, Various Service Groups and others.



As a young teen, I was a full fledged Scout and would be perched on the Scouting Float replete with bunting, paper streamers, a faux campfire and more. All placed on a flatbed farm wagon which was the norm for the Brighton Floats and each pulled by one of the local Farm Tractors.



We were to meet at the Public School Parking Lot, just to the East of Town, at 11 a.m. for final touch-ups and to line up. The Parade itself was schedule to head-out at 10 minutes to 12 in order to ensure that it reached the Town's Main Street sharply at noon.



Even as I walked down to the School Yard, children and their parents were beginning to line-up along the Main Street Route. Since Brighton, at the time was very rural, many of those families had travelled some miles to get there.



I mentioned it was cold, but that was not a big problem - other than for those lining up so early. Indeed, it was usually very cold for the Santa Claus Parade. The savings grace was that it did not take the Parade long to navigate Brighton's rather short Main Street.



No, the Big Problem that Day was the Wind: it was Relentless.



When I reached the school grounds, the Scout Float or what was left of it, was already there. The Bunting and Streamers were long gone though. Most of the Hay flooring had also vanished into the wind. Only the Faux Campfire, made from logs, remained.



As the minutes past, other Floats arrived but most had thrown in the towel in the face of the Gale and had headed back home - never reaching their intended destination. The 6 or so Floats which did brave it to the meeting place had been reduced to the bare boards of the Farm Wagon. The little of their remaining streamers and such, filled the air with an almost circus-like atmosphere.



They, in turn, slowly slunk off to their Winter Barns.



Left was only the Station Wagon and the motorized Santa Sleigh. In those days, The Sleigh was the only 'professional' float in the Parade and as such could withstand the wind.



Since a friend of mine - Allan, and I, had experience riding in the back of the Coling Station Wagon during recent Election Campaigns, we were chosen to operate the hand-cranked Victrola - an olde fashion record player (for those younger it performs the same function as a CD player / IPod); but with somewhat lesser quality.



Our music was even more bizarre - consisting of but 1 olde, scratchy 78 rpm recording of Gene Autry singing 'Rudolfe the Red Nose Reindeer'.



Off we set.

The Station Wagon in front with Santa directly behind holding on to his faux beard with all his might.

Not being held up by slow moving Floats, we travelled quickly along Highway Two - the old Trans Canada Highway which served as our Village's Main Street.

In no time we had reached the Business Section where the crowds had lined both sides - the Children viewing in awe - a jolly but wind blown Saint Nick.

I watched the parents' look of bewilderment - necks craning - in expectation of more. More Parade that is - but it was not happen.

We whistled though Town and ended up at the olde Town Hall where Santa doled out bags of Candy to all of the Excited Children. All of them - oblivious to the fact that they had just witnessed Brighton's shortest Santa Claus Parade ever.

The Parents were altogether another matter. They surrounded the poor Town Mayor and demanded that 'something be done' to avoid this type of embarrassment in the future.

And something was done. No future Parade suffered the ignominy experienced by that one in late November in the early 1960s. Future Parades contained more 'professional' floats.

But when I think back to that day - I can still see the excitement and smiles in the children's eyes.

And I was glad to have played a part in bringing them joy.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

Friday, December 18, 2009

PATRONAGE...a dirty word?

Not at all.



Given my strong feelings in favour of deep-sixing the Senate, you might assume that I am down on Patronage. Not so.



I just believe, for reasons previously and amply given, the Senate is a waste of time for everyone - Partisans included.


When I say that I am in favour of Patronage, I am speaking about the placement of Partisans in key (sensitive) government positions such as positions that render quasi-judicial decisions. Such positions, are known as Governor in Council (GIC) Appointments, and can be found on various Tribunals and Boards such as the Refugee Board, the Veteran's Pension Board, and the National Parole Board etc. These GIC appointments are made by the Prime Minister himself.

Let me be perfectly clear though, I am not speaking of favouritism in the letting of Contracts such as we witnessed in the Quebec Advertising Scandal. Contracts are for specific goods or services and it matters not whether the person or persons supplying those needs are political or not. We must adhere to a strict Tendering Process for Contracts, otherwise we descend into the Realm of the Banana Republic.


I continue...

The Patronage, I support - the placement of Partisans in key government positions - performs two important and essential roles in modern day democracies.



First, it mobilizes people to form / back a political organization for the purpose of seeing that their organization attains power. Can't you just imagine 300 plus Members of Parliament trying to operate independently - without Party affiliation. I cringe. Think of how hard it is for your local Council to reach a consensus and they have far fewer members. So for Democracy to work, people are needed to come together to form and support a Party. In recent experience, we have the example of Preston Manning and his Reformers coming together to form the Reform Party which in due course merged with the Progressive Conservatives to form today's governing Conservatives.


These concerned citizens come together, albeit not totally without self-serving expectations, but most are highly motivated to better their country.


In my own case, I have been a Tory supporter since I was 11 or 12 when I started to put up campaign signs around our village. I still remember fondly traveling the County of Northumberland in George Coling's station wagon equipped with one of those roof top loud speakers advertising an upcoming Tory Election Get-together. What fun!


My reward was the excitement of being involved in real Election Campaigns. As I grew older, my involvement increased but I never profited financially from it. My reward was confined to trying to make our Province / Country a better place in which to live; that was all the reward I needed. That said, I do not have difficulty seeing others benefit as a return on their volunteer hours for helping their Party achieve Power.

In that regard, I well remember being responsible for determining which of our County's Law Firms would obtain non-tendered federal law work during the time of Joe Clark's Government in 1979. (Not being in a major centre, my own small firm did not qualify for any of this government business). The hue and cry though that went up from the Liberal Law Firms was something to behold. Why, "they had done this work for decades and now it was arbitrarily being taken away from them". The Liberal Press was full of the horror stories. And yet, when Clark's Government fell but 9 months later and that legal work returned to those same Liberal Firms, not a word was said: not by the Tory Law Firms which barely had time to issue their first bills; not by the Liberal Firms which viewed the return of this work as their just due, and more importantly, not by the Liberal Press which considered all things Liberal to be right.



Second, Patronage enables the winning Party to put their stamp on government. Without loyal supporters in place, it is much more difficult, indeed nay impossible, to roll out the Party's Platform.



Allow me to provide you with some personal examples. I worked for a number of Departments that contained GIC appointments and later in my career, I even held such a position myself for a brief period of three years. (I may someday write a Blog on that very trying but interesting period).



In any event, I remember speaking with one such GIC Appointee of the previous Government, who decided to resign his post due to the fact that he readily admitted he was not "philosophically in tune with the new Government". (I can tell you that such resignations did not happen very often and it was a credit to his honour that he did so). This chap had initially been appointed due to his 'liberal' philosophy which was evident in his Board Decisions. With the recent Election of a Conservative Government, the need for a more Conservative approach to Decision Making was now called for.

When I worked for the Minister of Veterans Affairs, in the mid 1980s, we entered office at a time when a Commission had been struck to determine why decisions on Veterans' Disability Pensions were taking so long and were too often negatively decided. The first thing our Minister did was to shut down the Commission since he did not want to wait a year or more for its recommendations. He knew what needed to be done and his Philosophy of Speed and Generosity was soon absorbed by the GIC community. Within mere months, Veterans and their Representatives such as the Royal Canadian Legion noticed a vast improvement in the decision making process.

In recent years, another area of concern has arisen with respect to the the determination of who qualifies for Refugee Status. Simply stated, the process provides applicants with an end run around the formal immigration application process. When individuals are suffering true persecution, this end run is understandable. Too often though it is used by unscrupulous smugglers to defeat the true purpose of Canada's Refugee System. Under the Liberal Administration, the vast majority of GIC Decisions were favourable
to the Refugee Applicants even though it was conceded that only a minority were true Refugees. The Liberals were more focused on voter support from the ethnic communities.

Since the Election of the Conservatives, favourable decisions in Refugee Cases are now in the minority which is consistent with the view held by the average Canadian and, as I mentioned, is in keeping with the overwhelming consensus that most applicants are true Refugees (i.e. in danger of Persecution).


Finally, there is also a misconception out there that government appointees are not hard working - that their roles are both cushy and plum. Again, this is not true from my experience.




Given their background - hard and faithful work on behalf of a Party - the appointees for the most part are prepared to do what it takes to make a difference (i.e. they are already motivated). From the outside it may look plush, but in reality it has often meant disruption to the appointees and their families since in many cases they are obliged to uproot and move to a new city. Often their work entails writing decisions which are then subject to review by the Federal Court. Having been a Legal Advisor to a number of GICs I can tell you first hand that such writing is not an easy task.



Then there is the travel. It all sounds quite glamorous - being in different cities each week - living in nice hotels etc., and it is - for a week or two. After that it is a drudge. Living out of a suitcase and logging thousands of miles on plane soon loses its appeal.

Bottom-line; We are indebted to our Partisans and owe them a vote of thanks.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

Monday, December 14, 2009

The Nerve of the Have-Nots and Where is PEI on the Issue?

Ontario and Quebec are at Copenhagen this week where they have gone on record as opposing any subsidy on their part to assist Alberta in achieving carbon reduction.

The nerve!!

To begin with, what the Hell are Provinces doing at Copenhagen? International Forums are State and not a Provincial matters; a Country needs to speak with one voice - not three.

Anyway, back to the issue of these two ingrates.

Over past decades Quebec has benefited mightily from the huge transfer payments it receives from Alberta.

Ontario, as Canada's manufacturer, too has benefited greatly by selling its finished goods to the West. Now, ironically, it too may start to receive Western Transfer Monies as a result of its new Have not status. Plus, where does Ontario expect to receive its future Oil supplies?

Where is the equity - the fairness in their self-serving stance?

If Quebec had oil, as opposed to water power, you can bet your bottom dollar that they would oppose any attempt by the ROC to impose carbon caps. Such an issue alone would likely be enough to see Separation finally come about.

It may just have this effect for Alberta - and perhaps Saskatchewan. While the numbers favouring separation have been low in the West, compared to those in Quebec, this issue, if left unchecked, is likely to spike those numbers considerably. And for the West - Separation will be no Bluff.

In the interim, it will certainly help the Wild Rose Party become the next Provincial Government.

As Ralph Klein, a great Canadian so aptly said a few years back, 'let the Eastern Bastards freeze in the Dark'.

We deserve no less.

As I see it...

"Galagher"

Saturday, December 12, 2009

OBAMA'S Address at West Point

About a week ago, President Obama gave a speech at West Point wherein he increased the US troop strength in Afghanistan by 30,000. Interestingly, they are to be deployed in the Kandahar District where our soldiers have been fighting due to the fact that it is the most dangerous spot in all of Afghanistan. Canadian Soldiers deserve quite a pat on the back for single-handedly keeping that area under control awaiting American reinforcements.

Anyway, I digress.

I thought his speech deserved an A (ie 8/10) but was surprised by the comments from both sides of the debate in America. The Right roundly condemned it for being unlike FDR - ie "a Day that will live in Infamy' and not Churchillian enough (ie) "we will fight them on the beaches.."

But Obama was not reeling from an attack or preparing the nation for imminent invasion - he was only adding 30,000 fresh troops to the mix.

The Left, in turn, cried 'sellout' and compared Obama with George W and his Surge in Iraq. But Afghanistan is not Iraq. The attacks on the Trade Buildings were planned and originated from Afghanistan.

My 'A' for the speech was based on the fact that Obama had to walk a tight rope between these two camps and the fact that he upset them both tells me he succeeded. He authorized the additional troops, requested by his Commanders in the field and he set an arbitrary timetable to get out which he hoped would appeal to his leftist base.

Having said that, both sides arguments have some merit. First, the Surge worked wonders for the Republicans in Iraq and hopefully it will do the same this time. No guarantees though.

Second - setting the arbitrary timetable puts the Afghan Administration on notice that they will soon have to take care of their own security - as it should be. It also puts NATO on notice that the US is not going to continue to spend vast sums of money and blood when most Member Countries sit back with their feet up.

As I have said before it is no longer just a philosophical discussion - the USA is going broke. With Trillions in debt, they simply can no longer afford to play the World Policeman as much as they and we may like for them to do just that.

I have serious concerns re President Obama. I have yet to figure the guy out but do know that he is spending too much and building too great a government empire.

What I do know is that I liked his speech and think it worthy of an 'A'.

As I see it...

"Galagher"