I can predict the outcome of the Election with just those numbers...A Conservative Minority.
I see a hand up at the back - yes what is your question?
Don't you mean a Liberal Minority Galagher?
How So - well as students of Canadian History know full well - those numbers were the final per centages in Canada's Last Election ...the one in 2019.
So True and I thank you for pointing that out - indeed despite their small % lead the Conservatives took but 121 seats to the Liberal's 157.
So raw numbers can be and often are misleading - as in today's miniscule distance between these two parties.
It often comes down to where your strength is - for the Liberals since Moses climbed the Mount - the Liberals have been strong in the main centres of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver where the vast number of voters reside.
Bottom-line - just because the Tories have a lead in the popular vote does not mean that they will win out electorally. Historically, for a Party to win a majority they would have to secure at least 40% of the vote and neither one is even close to that number.
I said in an earlier blog that I would predict which Party will win - but can only do it closer to the Election on September 20th when the polls can be expected to harden up. So another 10 days or so to wait.
Speaking of Opinion Polls it reminds me of Brian Mulroney's rise and fall - in 1984 he secured vast majority government with a little over 50% of the popular vote and 211 seats in a parliament that was less numerous in members than today's. By the time he left politics and turned the reins over to the hapless Kim Campbell he was scoring in the low 20s and poor Kimmy went on to win but 2 lonely seats in the disastrous election campaign for them with but 16% of the vote. Mulroney had most certainly handed Campbell a Poison Chalice.
That brings me back to the Present and to realize how fickle an Electorate can be. How in the world is it possible for someone as bad a Prime Minister as Justin Trudeau to even be in the running at this late date in the Election. The fact that He is likely to retain his minority simply defies belief.
A favourite saying of mine is Never overestimate the intelligence of the average voter. Given that He is still neck and neck with the Tories I am prepared to modify this to the following - Never overestimate the intelligence of any voter.
So I will end with another one of my favourite sayings - with the advance polls soon opening be sure to get out and vote early and vote often.
As I See It...
K.D. Galagher
