THERE ARE TWO (2) CONTENDERS ...THE CONSERVATIVES AND THE LIBERALS...AND FOUR (4) WANNA-BEES..THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THE BLOC, THE PEOPLES PARTY, AND THE GREENS. IN TRUTH, THE BLOC IS NOT WANNA-BEE PER SE SINCE IT ONLY RUNS CANDIDATES IN QUEBEC BUT MOST CERTAINLY IT QUALIFIES IN THIS SECOND GROUP AS 'SPOILERS'.
Pizza Parliament Anyone?
In the last election the Liberals won 157 seats, the Tories 121 despite the fact that the Conservatives had a slightly higher per centage of the popular vote. Majority then (and now) required 170 members. With that bit of history, let's look at where things stand today - both Parties are stuck at 30% + /- so neither will end up getting a Majority Government.
So Minority Government it will be but for which of these two Parties?
Let's take a walk across the country:
Atlantic Canada - Went overwhelmingly Liberal in the 2019 Election and this time around they will again take the majority but will lose some to the Conservatives.
Quebec - The Bloc won 30 of the Province's 78 Constituencies last time around with 28% of the vote. This time their voter support is over 30% so look for them to win even more and those wins will be at the expense of the Liberals. The Conservatives will at most hold onto the 10 seats they won in 2019 but no more despite the Quebec Government's endorsement.
Ontario - We have to consider Ontario and its 121 seats regionally. First, its urban vote in big centres such as Toronto and Ottawa will remain primarily with the Grits though some inroads especially in Toronto are likely on the NDP's part - so marginally less for the Liberals. The Rural Areas of the Province will stay with the Conservatives but they are not numerous enough to affect the Election's outcome. It is the Greater Toronto Area ...the Suburbs in the 905 and 416 area codes which will tell the tale but sadly they are likely to remain Liberal but not by as much as in 2019...so a net loss for them but still a majority of those votes.
Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta - Will remain Tory with some losses possible to the Bernier's People Party but not enough to effect the outcome in those 3 provinces. And Then,
British Columbia - Three Parties are viable in Canada's California's West Coast. The NDP will gain seats here - the Tories will be lucky to keep what they have and the Liberals will be net losers but will still come out with some seats.
So What Does This Come Out As?
A Dog's Breakfast.
But that said, someone must come out a winner ...even temporarily.
And I suspect the Liberals will squeak a Minority Government followed by the Conservatives, the Bloc and the N.D.P.
The Day After is when things will get very interesting. Trudeau will drag his feet on calling the new Parliament to Order and will instead feverishly try to fashion a deal with another party to reach the magic 170 vote majority needed to get his new Government's Agenda through Parliament. Most likely this will see them once again joined at the hip with the NDP as in the last Parliament. This again is all contingent upon the numbers from both Parties totaling at least 170.
There is another possible outcome - though admittedly less likely - and that is the Conservatives and the Bloc forming an unofficial alliance - again assuming they can control at least a majority of the seats. Somewhat bizarre I acknowledge but as they say ... Politics Makes Strange Bedfellows. And don't forget, Tory Leader O'Toole has gone out of his way to placate Quebec even to the point of recognizing it as a Nation unto itself. So not as strange an outcome as one might otherwise think.
An even lesser possibility would be an agreement between the Conservatives and the NDP since both Parties are now fully entrenched in Progressive Land. NDP Leader Singh would though have to overcome his Caucus revulsion at cooperating with the hated Tories. But again these are strange times for Canadians.
So lots of possibilities but what I do know for sure is that whatever arrangement comes about it will not last long - Canada will soon find itself in another General Election and most likely with a whole new set of Leaders since the current lot will all be gone.
As I See It...
K.D. Galagher
