Okay, let's take a look at how the Trudeau Liberals went from Majority Status to Minority Status in last month's Canadian Federal Election and what this means for him in the days and months ahead.
Let's begin by noting that the Election Results were not the least bit surprising since the Liberal policies and stumbles over his 4 year term of Majority Government were disastrous as evidenced by the following: he reneged on his promise to reform the Electoral Process; he introduced the very unpopular Carbon Tax; and related to that, was anti-oil- pipeline, he interfered with Canada's Judicial System when, behind close doors, he came to the aid of a company by the name of Lavelin...based in Quebec and successfully charged in the past with illicit business practices including bribery; he dumped two his most popular female Members of Parliament both of whom had been shining stars in his Cabinet; he was the hapless subject of the Kokanee Grope (for you non-Canadians who do not have a clue what that all entails I urge you to look it up on-line); and of course he admitted during the recent campaign that he has worn 'black-face' at least 3 times in the past.
There is more I could include but the ones mentioned are, I believe, sufficient to show why the Canadian Electorate punished Trudeau by taking away his Majority.
I see a hand up at the back - yes, the Young Lady in the Mauve Shirt has a question.
Not a question per se but rather a comment....What you have said is simply not true, Trudeau was brought down by the Province of Quebec voting in 37 Separatists to the BLOC Quebec Party.
You make an excellent point, indeed when I think about it, the Bloc won only 10 seats in the previous election so in this past election they won 27 more and if Trudeau had secured those seats, as many thought he would, he would have easily maintained his Majority Government. (There are 338 seats or members in Canada's new Parliament, the Liberals took 157 Liberal, and if they had won another 27 in Quebec, it would have given him 184 seats whereas he only needed 170 for a Majority.)
But permit me to ask the young lady in the back if any of the failures I noted had a negative influence on the Quebec Voters who voted for the Bloc rather than traditionally voting Liberal?
Not at all, what was at issue was Quebec's notorious Bill 21 which discriminates against the public wearing of any religious symbols such as a cross, yarmulke or hijab including while working in government jobs. Polling shows that up to 70% of Quebecois' support this most discriminatory law and quite correctly although none of the federal parties came out in support of the Bill, save for the Bloc. Sadly none came out strongly or vocally enough against it either.
Good Point.
Okay so let's now get back to the subject at hand namely, what does this new Minority Status have in store for the Governing Liberals.
Well first and foremost it means, as in the past, that the Trudeau Government is not likely to survive more than 18 months...2 years at the most, before the other parties gang up and bring it down with their superior numbers. Remember , the numbers we are dealing with - 338 seats in the House, less 157 held by the Liberals, leaves 181 outstanding against them. That 181 can come together any time they want to force the Trudeau Liberal's out of Office but they will likely hold off a year or two before they do, as is per convention (i.e it takes any Party time to gear up for another Election).
Oh, Oh, I see the Young Woman's hand up again. You have another point you wish to raise?
Yes I do, but I don't think you are going to like it. I say that because what you have just said is also wrong. I agree with you that usually minority governments last but a short time but this time Trudeau can count on his mandate lasting at least 3 years and even up to 4 years... the latter being the expiry of his term. I say that because the Progressives Parties in the House, which include the Liberals, are not about to bring a fellow Progressive Party down. The Progressive majority is but a reflection of Canadian Society itself which is 65 to 70 per cent of that persuasion.
Well thank you again for that; I must admit that you once again make good sense. So given what you have just said, we can safely assume that Canada will not be plunged into another General Election for the next several years.
Hardly, since just because the Liberals will not be forced into an early Election does not for a minute mean that there will not be one. In the best traditions of the former Liberal Prime Minister Chretien, Trudeau himself will be looking hard for an opportunity to pull the plug...and by that I mean, if the Polls show him that he can likely win back a Majority he will be on it like fleas on a dog, so to speak regardless of the timing.
I get the feeling young lady that you and I should trade places since it appears to me that you have this all figured out and for the life of me, I cannot see where you are wrong.
As I See It,
K.D. Bell
Q
#s of seats before and after....??
