From the perspective of my New Year's Predictions.
This always provides me with some trepidation as you might well imagine...and where I blew it...I will 'man-up' to having done so.
As a reminder, my focus for this past year's prognostications continued to be on matters of international interest / import given that the promise of our Prime Minister of 2 years to "Bring Canada Back", has actually taken us out of play in the World Arena.
I have included my Blog from a year ago in its entirety and where I have felt it necessary, have included comments in bold italics.
Here Goes:
In some ways, 2017 will be a replay of last year - the world will continue to spiral out of control but due to two very different personages - Obama and Trump, we are guaranteed some significant changes.
1. On the international front and due to Obama's negligent dithering, Syria will become almost peaceful in 2017. "Good news" you say ! Hardly, what it means is that with Russia's and Iran's backing.. the Syrian Henchman al Assad can now rule Syria again with a iron hand. No freedom, No Human Rights, No Humanity. But...Peace. I blew it here, not because peace did not break out in Syria...it did, but it came about as a result of a coalition between Russia (Putin) and the United States (Trump) that defeated the ISIS army and its desired Caliphate. That said, I was not totally wrong either since Russia / Putin is well entrenched in the affairs of Syria and indeed in much of the Middle East due to Obama's ineptitude.
2. Trump, on the other-hand, is coming to power on a pledge to keep the US out of foreign entanglements and to play nice with brutal leaders such as Vladd Putin. Fortunately, The Donald is not built that way (see final line below), and soon the two will be at each others' throats. And that applies to other dictators and bullies around the world who mistakenly may think Obama's pacificisty has rubbed off on Trump. Again I believe I read this one correctly. Trump may well be a loose cannon but he does not suffer gladly thugs and henchmen (even though many of you will say he is one himself). In regard to Putin, I blew it here since I thought that by now they'd be at each others' throats but this will come about if Putin tries any funny business in the olde Eastern Europe. More on this in by coming Blog for 2018.
Here are some other important areas which will see notable changes in approach between these two:
3. Climate Change, Green Energy, and such will take a back-burner in importance in the United States thereby saving American's $ Billions of Dollars in wasted time, effort and especially money. The Donald pulled out of the Paris Accord, need I say more.
4. Business is back. Trump's policy of reducing Business Tax from 35% to 15% will provide a huge stimulus to the American Economy resulting in jobs, jobs, jobs. I hit this one on the mark albeit the reduction in tax was somewhat less than I had predicted. This is the reason that the DOW Jones rose over 7,000 points over the course of 2017...a simply staggering number. And it will go even higher for the foreseeable future.
5. The American Dollar will be strong throughout 2017 compared to other currencies. Mostly true.
6. The Keystone XL Pipeline will finally get Presidential approval. It happened this past March. It will mean thousands of jobs for America and will bring the day closer for North America to be energy self-sufficient.
7. Changes are coming to Obama Care but the big one will see business get out from under paying the high cost of health care for their full time employees. This in turn will reverse the trend, over the last 8 years, in the spectacular growth in part-time workers at the expense of full-time. I am going to say I blew it big time here because I thought Trump and the Republicans would deep six O.C. but they were not able to. Plus, I do not think what they were suggesting as a replacement was any better. It is obvious that it will take Dems and Rep working together to fix things but the likelihood of that happening does not seem to be in the cards.
8. Given the Religious Community's support for Trump in the recent Election - something of significance will be given to them. Certainly we will see the de-funding of Planned Parenthood and likely much more. The Trump administration is indeed more Religion Friendly and funding for Planned Parenthood was scotched.
9. The Wall will go up on the southern border with Mexico and Trump will find ways to wrest $ from their neighbour to the south to help pay for it. Will it though stop tunneling? Because it won't stop migration from sea and air..but it will help. The Wall is going up and illegal migration is way down some say by as much as 70+%. Once the Wall is completed, it will drop even further. A country that cannot or will not police its borders is not protecting its citizens. Trump has yet to say how he will have Mexico pay for the Wall but I suspect this will still come about.
10. Trump is also on record as promising vast investiture in infrastructure. It won't happen - the Democrats have doubled the national debt to over 20 Trillion Dollars - that's Trillion with a T. The fact is the US is broke and it will take years of righting the Ship of State before infrastructure $ can be freed-up. This one will have to be left for 2018 too since Trump is still on record saying he will accomplish this. With the Debt so high and more big money being spent on the Military, I still see this as unlikely to happen.
11. On Free Trade, Trump has indicated that he will rewrite them in favour of American interests. Here again I am hopeful that common sense prevails for a couple of reasons: first, america is no wilting violet when it comes to negotiating such agreements and second, protectionism does not work all you end up with is more expensive and yet inferior goods and services. If Trump does persist with his nonsensical plan, we will all suffer, most especially the United States. The Jury is also still out on this one and the outcome will have to await into 2018. Reports though indicate that negotiations are strained. The only true free-trader amongst the 3 countries appears to be Mexico. Now that tells us something.
Other Predictions Regardless of Trump:
12. Gold will tread water where it currently is - $1,100 per oz range. Gold averaged slightly higher ...$1,200 per oz but no one grew rich in investing in gold over the course of 2017. As we enter 2018 it is creeping higher so we'll see if it has legs after a long period of moving sideways.
13. Oil will tread water too at the mid $50 dollar a barrel range even though OPEC members have promised to cut production to force the cost per barrel up. This group makes Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves look like Choirboys...you can't trust them. Again true, since oil averaged in the $50 range throughout 2017. As we enter 2018 it is beginning to enter into the 60 dollar range due to the populace rising up in Iran.
14. I mentioned Syria will see peace breakout and all for the wrong reasons. But Iraq will continue to see much division and bloodshed. The southern part of Iraq which is Shia will be spared since they will be protected by Shia Iran. The Sunnis middle will continue to be the target of the Shiites and will foreshadow the day when the Middle East will see open warfare between Sunnis and Shia Muslims. The northern part of Iraq occupied by the Kurds will see unrest until the day comes when the Kurds are given their own country...and that day is not far off. In fact, you will soon see the current Iraq divided into three separate countries - the Kurdish north, the Sunnis middle and the Shia south and although that is unlikely to happen before the end of 2017 it will certainly be evident to all at year's end that this is the direction things are headed.
Another I 'blew it'. ISIS stands defeated as an army but trouble galore awaits Iraq for 2018 and beyond. I did not predict a breakup of Iraq in 2017 and am not going to suggest it for the coming year but I am convinced that a long lasting peace there awaits such a division.
15. 2017 will see ISIS and similar Murderous Barbarians without any land holdings in the Middle East. The Caliphate will have to await another time. Their terror will now fully morph into guerrilla warfare throughout many parts of the world - more car bombs, lone gunmen, and the such. It will not be pretty. True, True, True.
16. Russia and Iran have replaced the US role in the middle east and more conquests can be expected...Libya anyone? As long as NATO is parked in the former satellites of the Soviet Union, Russia will refrain from attacking them militarily. I am though worried about the Ukraine which is not a NATO member and which does not appear to have sufficient support from that organization. I would expect Putin to try more mischief there during this coming year. Mostly true. Putin is still trying to destabilize Ukraine but has his hands full trying to insert himself deeper into the politics of the Middle East.
17. Sunnis Nations such as Saudi Arabia will intensify their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. True as per the report of the Washington based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). I might suggest to this organization that it find another acronym. In addition, Saudi Arabia announced in 2017 that it is planning to build 16 Nuclear Reactors at a cost of over $80 Billion Dollars. A new Nuclear Armament Race has begun thanks to Iran and North Korea.
18. Germany's Angela Merkel is toast and won't survive this year's national election. She is blamed for the chaos caused to her country via the invitation to 1 million + unvetted Muslim Refugees in 2015 and 2016. Sort of blew it... but the September 24th Election left Ms. Merkel in minority government status. Into 2018 she is still desperately trying to mend together a coalition. I still believe time is running out for Germany's 'Mutti'.
19. The EU will continue to totter which is too bad since a strong united European Union is needed to fend off an aggressive Russia, a totalitarian Giant - China, and a large pockets of hostile Islamists. Again True. The Big Three, Britain (well into leaving the EU) Germany (preoccupied with seeking a working Government) and France (testing Government run by a non-traditional Party) is a recipe for disaster. The EU, like our Canada is happy to take a back seat to Russia, China and the United States.
20. A strong NATO is needed now more than ever given the fallout from #19. Trump threatened at one point to leave NATO...which is crazy talk and then demanded correctly that NATO countries pay their fare share. Of its 28 member nations only 4 or so pay the recommended 2% GDP on their military. If NATO does not step up to the plate so to speak, things will go from bad to worse for freedom loving peoples of the world. My guess is that the membership will start paying up in this coming year. Plus I would have it change its name from North Atlantic Treaty Association to the North, South, East and West Treaty Association and expand membership to such countries as India, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Trump did indeed change his tune saying now that NATO is indeed a vital organization to world peace. He has outed member nations for not paying their fair share and although I had trouble finding hard data, at least more and more members are promising to expend more on their defence budgets. Time will tell. I did not predict a name change or membership enhancement for NATO...merely that that would make sense and I believe in the not too distant future this will indeed happen since with the rise of China, the United States can no longer play Policeman for the world even with a diminished NATO.
21. The British economy will decline and its pound drop even more from the effects of moving out of the EU. Won't be a good place to invest in 2017. At the beginning of 2017 the Pound Sterling could purchase 82.03 cents US. It declined all year and by year's end was down to 73.55 cents US. It is not likely to do any better in 2018 and quite possibly even worse.
22. China - will continue to threaten its neighbours. It will also focus especially on Taiwan given Taiwan's President recent friendly chat with Donald Trump. I do not think it will go so far as to invade Taiwan... at least in 2017. As we end 2017, China is a big a threat as ever to its neighbours and beyond. Fortunately for it, the world's attention has been focused on the antics of North Korea allowing China to fad into the background. I was wrong to even think that China would invade Taiwan and believe this will hold for the coming year. As its military power continues to grow however, I would not be too comfortable if I was Taiwanese.
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There is one other prediction I made later in the year that did not come to fruition either and that was my statement to the effect that the Yung-un of North Korea would not survive to see the New Year. He did and I was wrong. Maybe the olde saw 'The Devil Takes Care Of His Own' is alive and well.
So Predictions, Predictions, but one thing is certain, with The Donald at the helm of the Free World, ... 2017 will certainly be a most interesting year. Check
And nothing, dear Reader, is certain as per the following passage I read in the papers over Christmas:
The mainstream press and the politicians take Trump literally but not seriously,,,while the electorate takes Trump seriously but not literally.
Bottom-line: I do not think I did very well in regard to my above predictions. You can grade me if you wish. Hopefully I will be able to redeem myself in 2018 !!
As I see it...
'K.D. Galagher'
