Friday, March 3, 2017

$$ Trillions here and $$ Billions there...Trump is on a Roll.

Barely a month into His Term and The Donald is hitting his stride:


  • Trillion(s) for Infrastructure;

  • Billions more on Defence;

  • And more $$ for Immigration and Border Controls;

  • Plus a reduction in Corporate Taxes from the current 35% to 20% or even less.
All are great measures, save for one problem ... The US of A is dead broke ...flat busted.  It's Debt now exceeds $20 Trillion Dollars which is equal to America's annual Gross Domestic Product.  Not a healthy sign.

Something has to give and I suspect it will be one or more of the above Big Ticket Items.

And it will not be the Dems that cause Trump to re-evaluate his spending plans ...heck they are the ones responsible for the current state of their Nation's Debt.  Rather, it will be the Republicans in Congress who will bring the Prez back down to reality...for it is the Republicans who preach and demand fiscal restraint.

That said, the only area that I believe to be sacrosanct is Defence Spending. The World in 2017 is ever more dangerous and America's Defence capacity has not kept up in response to that growing danger.  The Eight Years under Obama saw its capability significantly erode and Trump therefore has no choice but to restore it back to 2008 levels.  That still will not get it to where it should be in 2017 but this is where NATO comes in.

With Russia and China on the move, the Middle East on Fire and Jihadist Terrorists inflicting death and destruction throughout the Free World, the USA can no longer go it alone.  In that regard, Trump is right to demand that the 24 of 28 NATO Members step up to the plate and pay their fair share.  That fair share is set by NATO and requires each member nation to allocate at least 2% of their GDP to their military spending.

The Greatest Area of potential cost though is with respect to Infrastructure Spending.  There is no doubt there is a great need for such spending but the cupboard is bare and simply stated, if it is left to the Government to pay for this...it will not happen.  That said, there is another way to skin this cat ...so to speak. The Trump Government could partner with the Private Sector ...have the PS pay the costs upfront in return for long term leases - i.e. levy tolls to recoup their costs and realize a fair profit.  Businesses would benefit greatly, the public would gain needed jobs and the Federal Debt will not be adversely impacted.  Win, Win, Win.

In regard to new money for Immigration / Border Controls this in itself will not be a major expense since much money is currently being spent in these areas..often inefficiently. (Plus of course, Mexico is going to pay for the Wall).  I am told that there are some 30+ government organizations involved in Security...far too many so I would suggest collapsing many of those down into a much smaller number.  The efficiencies realized from this will more than make up for any additional costs associated with better immigration screening and better border control. 

Finally, the other major area of cost concerns Trump's promise to dramatically reduce Corporate Taxes.  It can be expected, that after a time lag, this initiative will stimulate the economy which in turn will result in greater government revenue. But in the short-term this measure will have an adverse affect on the Treasury.  Given this, if I was Trump, I would gradually introduce these reductions over a period of years...for example - year one 28%, year two 25%, year three 22% and so on. This will mitigate the affect of the short-term disruption in revenue while at the same time provide Business a stable blueprint they can rely on for future planning.  Another Win, Win.

The bottom-line in all of this, is that even if President Trump's plans seem overly ambitious, there are practical ways in which to make them workable and at the same time ensuring a boost to the American Economy so desperately needed in these challenging times.

As I see it...

'K.D. Galagher'