+Pt 2 … My Specific Predictions for 2015

So let’s now review what I said specifically was likely to happen in 2015.  Again my self-graded comments appear in Bold Italics at the end of each major heading:
Ottawa
The municipal election is over so not too many entrails to paw over.
Gang Shootings are the big issue though – nearly 1 per week – an all time high last year and likely to continue for 2015. 
The Police say that if only they assign more officers to their guns and gang unit – the problem will lessen but as one distinguished defence lawyer said – to double down on what has not worked in the past will only insure continued failure in the future and he is correct.
So I predict the problem will persist.  I do have a suggestion for the City and the Police on how they should really be dealing with Gangs, guns et al and that will be the subject of one of my very next blogs.    A – in 2014 there were 47 shootings; as of the end of 2015 there were a couple less. So whatever the Guns and Gangs Unit is doing continues not to work.
Ontario
Again the election has passed so little to comment on.
And no doubt you are getting tired of my saying this is Ontario’s worst government in history but sadly I truly believe it and thus nothing of substance will likely improve in 2015.  Again not a prediction but a statement of fact.
One of the only predictions I will make is in regard to May’s Tory Leadership Vote – Christine Elliott will win but she would not be my pick.  With Elliott in place, Ontario will have 2 liberal parties – the Tories and the NDP and one NDP Party – aka the Liberals. 
I think the group of candidates is wanting but my choice from this meagre list would be Monte McNaughton if for no other reason than he is the only candidate of the 5 or 6 to come out strongly against Wynne’s pornographic sex education plan for our young public schoolers.
The Tories should have used this time to lick their wounds – give the Grits a chance to self destroy and beat the bushes for some really good candidates – John Baird anyone?
The only other prediction I will make in regard to Ontario is with respect to our economy.  With the drop in oil and the drop in our dollar – economic activity will pick up – (it cannot get any lower given the Grits’ devastating policies that have caused business to flee the Province). It will not though be as robust as it should otherwise be and it will not enable the province to escape its ‘have-not’ status.
C
– Brown, the only other candidate left running other than Elliott, won the PC Leadership and I voted for him but so far am not impressed . The Tories, like their federal counterparts should have waited to hold their Leadership Convention until such time as they had some real heavies available to run.
-  Over this past year, Oil and our Buck continued their steep decline but so far this has not had much of a positive effect on Ontario’s economy  i.e. employment growth since Nov. 2014 is a measely .05% so it would appear that the Province’s Green Energy Fiasco has just caused too much damage to business.
Canada
The big news here will be the upcoming Election.
I believe Harper will call it before the Duffy Trial this coming April.  
If he does not call it and awaits the statutory date in October I think there is a very good chance Harper will not even be at the helm then.  I will explain in a moment. 
By all accounts given that two-thirds of Ontarians lean to the left, Harper et al should have no chance of forming the next government.  That said, I predict he will win and by a slight majority.  I say this because neither the Dippers nor the Liberals have staked out policies that resonate with the voters and this coupled with my prediction of a March election should be enough to carry the Tories to victory. 
If the election is in the Fall, the dirt that comes out of the Duffy trial will plaster the Prime Minister and he will be lucky to personally survive let alone win an election.  I say that because I believe he mislead the public by saying he had no idea that his Chief of Staff paid out $90k to Duffy and if he did, it will all come out at the trial. 
The Keystone Pipeline will not get the okay from the little man’s in the white house.  Congress will need a two thirds vote to over-ride his veto and the chances of this happening over the course of this new year are about 50/50 and accordingly does not count as a prediction.
Oil will rebound this year – it cannot get much lower.
The Feds will have to slash even more in staffing and programs to keep its budget balanced – many because of the lost oil revenue. 
Harper will use his about to be introduced Bill to fight terrorism as an excuse to go the public early – i.e. an Election in March. 
Another C
Harper did not go to the polls in March as I had predicted, but had he done so, I fully believe he would have won. 
I was correct in saying that Obama would finally announce that the Keystone Pipeline would not be approved by his Adminsitration. 
I was wrong in thinking oil would recover and civil service employment declined only modestly.  It will now go into a period of growth under our new Liberal administration.
The World
Russia – Putin is wounded – e.g. falling oil prices is causing havoc to the Russian economy and thus he is more dangerous than ever.  That said, I think 2015 will see Russia withdraw back into its borders primarily because NATO has shown at last that it is  prepared to stand and fight him.
ISIS – too will continue to decline (but by no means disappear) in importance throughout the middle east - again because the West has called its bluff especially with its very successful air campaign.
The EBOLA scourge will finally come under control as Western Countries like Canada send the needed resources to fight it.
Greece will leave the EU with Germany’s blessings.
Iran will not be stopped in its ongoing efforts to develop and establish a delivery system for the Atomic Bomb.
Israel -  Netanyahu will win this coming March’s election.  His popularity is being given a big boost by the region’s terrorists.
Israel will sadly not though launch an attack against Iran despite Obama’s continued dithering.
UK – Cameron will win the May 17 General Election.  Like Netanyahu – he is being helped by the greater aggression on the part of terrorists.
So that’s it – otherwise 2015 will be business as usual – terrorists will continue to terrorize – innocents suffer, the USA will dither, China bully, the world’s economies will languish although cheaper oil will help somewhat.
2015 will be a replay of last year.
A – the only prediction that did not come to pass was Greece not leaving the EU otherwise I believe I was quite accurate.  You might argue that Russia did not retreat in Eastern Europe but from my perspective it did and did so only because NATO finally got involved.  It was quite different thing in Syria where Russia took the initiative but not because of NATO rather because the USA under its do nothing Prez continued to do nothing.   Good thing I am focusing on international matters.
Overall mark?  B or B- .  You decide.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’