Will Prime Minister Harper await the statutory election date in October or go as early as this Spring?
And that dear reader, is the question.
I mentioned in my recent New Year’s Blog that I thought he would go to the polls this March and I have believed this ever since the trial date for Mike Duffy was set for this coming April.
Most pundits still predict an October vote but I find it interesting that of late, a number such as John Ivison – now tend to agree with me.
There have been a number of recent signals for an early election including the dumping of Julian Fantino as Minister of Veterans Affairs. But I can tell you what will really seal the deal is when Harper fills the 17 vacancies in the Senate.
If there is to be a March election, these appointments will have to happen soon and I predict it will occur just after the introduction of the Tories Spring Budget which the Minister of Finance just stated will come down in April but I believe it is more likely to occur next month – in early February.
With the dropping price of oil and its threat to the Tories’ balanced budget, I cannot see Harper delaying the general election until the Fall. The longer he holds off, the worse the economic news is likely to be.
But the real reason I see for an early vote goes right back to the Mike Duffy Trial.
I said when this issue first arose that never in Canadian Politics has so much rested on the antics of one ambitious and ethically challenged individual .. the Duffster.
But to me the truth of the matter is that Harper had to have known about the $90,000 payment from his Chief of Staff – Nigel Wright – to Duffy and yet he not only denied such – he threw his loyal aide under the Bus.
Many behind the scenes have to know this and I cannot see Wright going under oath and claiming otherwise.
What then becomes of Harper?
Probably a resignation since he certainly would not want to go to the polls in October under such a cloud.
Hence my belief that if Harper truly wants to remain as Prime Minister – his only hope is to get the vote done before the trial starts.
I do not relish in any of this since I truly believe that Harper has been the best Prime Minister in many, many years… perhaps the best ever.
He has been able to at least partially meet the needs of Canada’s diverse regions and peoples. Former Prime Ministers have tried – often successfully - to play one region or one set of peoples against the others.
Harper is what you see - you get and does not appear to have favourites albeit he rightfully hues to the centre right but even for me he is sometimes too ready to lean left. Another example of having something for everyone.
But Canada is a difficult country to run and he has run it better than most.
I hope that he goes for the March Vote and that he wins it since we will be poorer without him despite his great mis-step in the Duffy Affair.
If the Grits bitch, as they will – one need only remind them that Jean Chretien swore up and down that he never said he would ‘scrap the hated GST’ despite the fact that time and again during that election he did just that.
Whether I am right or wrong – it will be an interesting year in the life of Canadian Politics – as it more than not is.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’
