My Predictions for this Past Year–2014

 

 

Lead in -

I have marked after each prediction three possible results in bold italics– a) check (ck) which means I am okay with what I predicted; b) blew it (b-i) which means I goofed; and c) explanation (ex) where I see my prediction as being neither correct nor wrong. 

So here goes -

The World -

1. War will remain widespread but limited in areas – the middle east and many parts of Africa.  Western nations for the most part will be able to sit back and idly watch.  CK
2. China, as its financial power continues to grow will continue to flex its military muscle but will avoid war for foreseeable future. CK
3. As mentioned above, Islamic terrorism will continue with renewed vigour and this will negatively impact all of us –including Muslims given the animosity that exists between their various sects. Christians and Jews though will continue to be especially targeted.  CK
4. The ‘experts’ predict that Gold will continue to decline in value over 2014. I disagree for the reasons set-out in the above background. CK (gold was $1,225 an ounce on Jan.1/14 and closed this year at $1,200)
5. Oil will move sideways as economic recovery will remain fragile and as the United States provides more and more of its energy use from internal sources.  Today’s price is $95 pbl.   B-i

The United States -

1. Obama’s approval rating now in the mid 40s will continue to decline. CK – it is now in the 30s
2. The Republicans will gain control of both the House and Senate in November’s Election. CK
3. The US debt now $17.3 Trillion will exceed $18 Trillion by year’s end. CK – it is now 18,048,085,863,422.40 and by the time the little man leaves the White House it will be well passed $20 Billion.  Something for the children and grandchildren to deal with.
4. Their GDP will surprisingly rise – but not by the 4% that financial experts are now predicting. (It is most difficult for me to see their GDP rising at all but I do bow to the ‘experts’ here.  This growth will be fuelled by the private sector which was hammered in 2008 and is simply in a bit of a recovery mode now). CK annual increase for 2014 was 2.7% although by year’s end it was starting to move higher.
5. Interest rates will continue to rise over 2014. B-i – they did not rise but if anything dropped slightly from 2013.
6. US diplomacy across the world will continue to misfire. Its enemies – Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, the Taliban, Al Qaeda will grow more brazen in thumbing their noses at America.  US allies, in contrast, will watch on in disbelief and will take greater steps to protect their own interests, abandoning their hereto dependence on the USA.  CK

Canada –

There were four major non anticipated occurrences last year here at home: 1. Mayor Rob Ford; 2. The Senate Scandal going rogue; 3. the Alberta Floods and 4. the Lac Megantic rail disaster. Only the Senate Scandal will continue to have legs although whether it should is open to debate.

1. With respect to our dollar the ‘experts’ say that it will continue to decline in comparison to the US sawbuck. It won’t. (as of today it is worth 96 cents).  B-i – it most certainly declined and it looks like it has room to go down further as we head into this new year.
2. Obama will turn down the Keystone Pipeline construction. for two reasons – one, as mentioned – America is making good progress in its goal of attaining energy self sufficiency; and two – he would be loath to let down his cadre of left wing loonies. CK
3. Pipeline construction / use generally will pick up across Canada but it will continue to be hampered by efforts of environmentalists, natives at every opportunity.  There will as always be violence mostly on the part of our natives. CK
4. As stated above, the Senate Scandal will continue in the news but at the end of the day will have little effect on next year’s – (2015) Federal General Election. EX – the senate scandal is still live as we await the AG’s audit on this most austere assembly.  Plus it will have an effect on this year’s election with the coming trial in April of the Duffster. Plus I suspect, unlike most other pundits that Harper will go to the polls in March to avoid the April trial.
5. The Future of the Senate itself will also be a major issue for 2014 as we currently await direction from our left leaning Supreme Court of Canada. CK –and not surprisingly the SCC said changes to the Senate would require the support of the Provinces so it looks like we are stuck with it for some time to come.
6. The Tories will make hay on several wedge issues – issues that distinguish the Conservatives from both the Liberals and the NDP.  The major ones being the legalization of marijuana, prostitution, and tough on crime issues generally. CK and as we leave this past year – Tory fortunes are on the rise in part to these issues.
7. Although I am not predicting it – Harper may decide to pack it in this year.  He seems to have lost his lust for power and I suspect he is not too happy with himself for the way in which he put several of his former friends and colleagues under the bus – not the least being nice guy Nigel Wright.  I suspect he has a little trouble these days looking at himself in the mirror.  If I had to bet I would predict he will not resign this year – but it he did – it would come as no surprise me. My prediction though is he will be in harness at year’s end.  CK – but if, as I suspect, it comes out in the Duffy trial that Harper knew about Nigel Wright’s agreement with Duffy in advance – he will be forced to resigned assuming he does not go to the polls in March of course.
8. The Tories will balance the budget by the end of this year as well.  CK
9. Michael Chong’s private member’s bill to reduce the power of the Prime Minister will be approved if it is allowed to go to 3rd and final reading. CK – although it was much watered down.

Ontario - As I have said many times previously – this current Liberal Government is the worst that I can ever recall save for the possibility of the Duplessis Government of Quebec in the 1930s,40s and 50s.

          There will be an election this year and the likelihood is that it will occur in the Spring.

1. Tim Hudak will win but one has to question why he would want to after the severe damage done by the Liberals over the course of the past 10 years. B-i
2. Rob Ford will not win the Toronto Mayoralty in this fall’s election. (I said above the Ford story will no longer have legs – that is not to say it will not be in the news – it simply means no one will give a damn if it is nor should they). EX – I was correct that Ford did not win – but of course I had no idea he would contract cancer – but even had he not withdrawn I believe now that Tory would have beaten him.  What I failed to see and hence the EX designation is the fact that the Ford saga continued to have legs.

E.U. -

1. Will for the most part be a non-issue in 2014 the only significant issue will be the continued rise of the extreme right against Jews and refugees. CK

Russia -

1. There will be no terrorists attacks at next month’s Sochi Games.  Security will just be too tight. CK
2. Putin has consolidated his power over 2013 and thus is well positioned to continue with his dictatorial ways over 2014 and likely beyond. CK
3. Russia (Putin) will continue to try to upstage the USA but the fact is Russia’s days as a world super power is over. EX – Russia continues to upstage the US and I do believe its days of Super Power status are over but it is making a strong attempt to regain its glory days of the USSR.  In that they will fail but much damage can result in the process.
4. Russia’s fight to more closely ally itself with the Ukraine will continue over the year but it is doomed to failure as the Ukraine will eventually become part of the EU – not this coming year though.  Until things are settled, violence will be prevail.  CK

China -

1. It will continue to grow economically by leaps and bounds and will continue to beef up its military capacity. CK
2. It will not seriously engage in military action. CK – it is threatening to do so but has not yet engaged in doing so.

North Korea -

1. Something is gravely amiss in the North.  Dear Leader is in trouble and will be fortunate to survive although I believe with the execution of his uncle – he has bought time to survive at least until next year. CK

The Middle East -

1. The chaos that is the middle east will continue unabated. CK
2. Afghanistan will a) see the Taliban’s continue  retake this poor nation CK and b) America will fashion a last minute deal to keep its troops there for at least another year. B-i – the Yanks for all intents and purposes have pulled out.  Whether or not the Taliban is ultimately successful in retaking all of the country will depend on Pakistan.
3. Iran will remain the biggest story of the year  – in other words, the question remains will it be allowed to continue with its building of nuclear weapons?   I do not see America having the commitment under Obama to take the steps needed to stop them. CK
4. Israel – a) is surrounded by Muslim Countries on fire and the fallout is encroaching upon their territory. Things will only worsen over 2014. CK  b) The biggest threat to Israel and indeed to the middle east is the danger posed should Iran successfully develop the bomb.  That being said – Israel would – if it has US backing – knock the heck out of Iran’s nuclear program.  But since it does not have America’s backing the question for this year – is will it go it alone? For me – it depends on whether or not the current agreement with Iran – the US et al is resolved successfully.  If it breaks down – I can see Israel going it alone against Iran in 2014. EX – the US and Iran have extended their ill fated negotiation so things have just moved into 2015.  It does not look very promising.  c) a proposed agreement, currently under discussion between Israel and Palestine – and brokered by the USA – will crash and burn like all those before it. CK
5. Syrian - leader Bashar al Assad has been able to reinforce his position over the course of last year and accordingly will not be defeated in 2014 … the civil war will though continue unabated. The only thing which could have tip the balance against him would have been the entry of NATO which did not / will not happen. CK – NATO has finally intervened but it is difficult to know exactly whose side it is on.
6. Egypt – The Military will continue its just war against the Muslim Brotherhood.  Violence will continue in their streets but this is the best thing to have have happened in the Middle East in a long time.  The Military has identified the enemy and has taken the measures needed to address Muslim Terrorism.  This has the best chance for resulting in a peaceful middle east hopefully sometime in the not too distant future. CK

Overall I am quite happy with the outcomes of this past year’s predictions and certainly believe they were better than the ones I had for 2013.

I will do something for 2015 but I am going to take a different approach.

Before closing I would like to just make some general comments in regard to this upcoming year.

First, the Middle East will continue to burn.  Russia will continue to threaten their former members and the threat will rise now that Putin’s leadership is threatened by falling oil prices.

The Little Man in the White House – will continue to reign as the worst president in American history and will be even more dangerous given that he is not restricted by needing to be re-elected.

Closer to home – the Wynne Government – the worst in Ontario History will not disappoint as they continue to make our Province the basket case of Confederation. 

And on the national scene – it is too early to tell how the votes will fall out in this year’s upcoming election.  All that we know now is that both the Tories and the Grits are competitive and the Dippers appear to be on a downward trend – but as they say – a week is a long time in politics making 10 months a life time.

As I see it…

‘K.D. Galagher’