Let’s Pretend Today, is Thursday June 12Th, Election Day In Ontario.
So What are the Polls saying?
A Dead Heat: Tories 36.5; Liberals 36.0; and NDP 20.0 %.
To me, this translates into a minority Liberal Government, with some important caveats.
The Liberals have the lead in core Toronto – 43 to the Tories 31 and with the NDP at only 17% there, it means most if not all of Toronto’s 20 seats will continue to be Red.
The surrounding area of Toronto – the important 905 Region too remains Liberal – but less so – with the Liberals now at 37% to the Tory 30% and the Dippers at 20%. If that holds to election day the Grits will get the over half of the 905 vote – so they will leave the GTA with at least 30 of the 40 available seats.
They only need 54 seats to form a majority.
Now the caveats:
First, a greater % of Tory Voters say they are committed to going to the polls – so the dead heat numbers above have to be read with that in mind – i.e the Tory vote is firmer.
Second, with such a large lead in Toronto and to a lesser extent in the 905 – many liberal votes there will be wasted as overkill. But they still will most likely come out of those two areas with at least 30 seats.
Third, momentum – the big MO is beginning to turn on the Liberals. In other words, the longer the election goes on – the less overall % they can expect. In that regard, the Liberals can be thankful that the election is but 3 days away. - and -
Fourth, the Unionization of the Election is starting to wear thin and is starting to turn voters off. This will move more voters into the Tory ranks.
Taken together, the above could very well put the Tories in the win category and I will do my final Blog on the June 12th Election – on the 11th and will read the tea leaves as they then present themselves.
Right now though – my read is a slight win for the Liberals. Their best hope is that more Dippers come their way between now and Thursday as the realization continues to sink in that the NDP really are not serious players in the 2014 Election.
As I see it …
‘K.D. Galagher’
