June 12th Ontario Election?
Glad you asked.
Tell me the Polls and I will tell you the outcome.
For instance, as things stand now the Tories will win a minority … the Grits will follow a close second and the Dippers will bring up the rear.
This is based upon current polling which shows Tory support in the mid 30s, the Liberals 2 or 3 points below that, and the NDP trailing in the mid 20s.
But the dynamics of the campaign await and in that regard I have some thoughts for you.
But first, I would like to clear up a misconception. Pundits are almost unanimous in their belief that Andrea Horwath courageously brought down the Wynne Government. She did nothing of the sort.
Wynne and Company were in full campaign mode a month before their budget came down – billions and billions of $ were being handed out like confetti.
Anyone tuned in would know the Grits were going to the polls come hell or high water and this included Ms. Horwath. Her so called ‘principled’ stand to at last cease their support of the Grits was a desperate last minute bid to be seen doing something honourable.
She, who is the least honourable of the bunch, having propped up the worst Government in Ontario’s history for well over a year.
But now for some of my analysis in regard to the campaign.
Let’s start by saying that none of the three leaders deserve to be elected Premier. I will just leave it at that.
The Tories with their mid 30s support is a floor in a sense since that number basically includes their base and is not likely to drop. By the same token, it will not necessarily rise either.
The Liberals, low 30s, represents to me a ceiling since after a decade of power, they have bungled things so badly it is difficult to see that number increasing. Their current 32 – 33 % support is about as high as they are going to get.
The NDP in the mid 20s is the Party most likely to grow over the next month. I see this happening with a bleed to them from the Liberals. I don’t think it will be enough for them to form the government, but it could place them in second place.
So at this point in time, without the benefit of final polling, here is my guess as to the final result: Tories win with a minority. The Grits and Dippers fight it out for Official Opposition Status.
Indeed, the three Parties may each end up with a vote total in the 30 per cent range. In other words – a three way split of the electorate.
So what this means is that we could be back into another election within the year.
But of course I will know better when I get the final polling results.
As I see it …
‘K.D. Galagher’
