Election Day for the Province of Ontario.
So what do the Polls show?
PC’s are way out in front – one poll having the Tories @ 42% and the most recent – an Ipsos Reid Poll, showing the Tories at 39%, the Grits at 30% and the Dippers bringing up the rear at 24%.
And this means?
A Tory Majority with the Liberals forming the Official Opposition.
In the Toronto core, the Liberals still lead with 37% but in the important GTA, the Tories come in at 48% with the Grits way behind at 34%.
So if the election was held today, the Tories under Tim Hudak would become Ontario’s next Government.
But this is no thanks to his blunder in recently announcing that he would cut 100,000 government jobs. But it does show that his mistake has not proven fatal … i.e. most civil servants are not apt to be voting Tory any way.
That said, the really important event, besides the actual election day, has yet to come …the one and only Debate between the 3 Leaders scheduled for June 3rd.
That there is only one such Debate, is affront to democracy but we will take what we can get.
But so much for open dialogue with the voter.
As I indicated from the beginning, the Liberals were at their ceiling when the election began (low 30s), the Tories at their floor (mid 30s) and the NDP trailing in the mid 20s.
In other words – the Liberals could go down …but not up and the Tories could go up, but not down.
And that is exactly what has transpired as you can see from the Ipsos Reid Poll.
But Debates have a tendency to change things and following are the main things that could occur:
1. Wynne scores big – 8 up to 10 out of 10. By doing so, she would preserve her core vote in the early 30 per centile.
2. Wynne could under perform – i.e. 5 to 7 out of 10 and this would see her core vote diminish probably into the 20 per centiles.
3. Hudak could score big – 8 to 10 out of 10 and this would launch him well into the 40s - or -
4. Hudak could under perform – 5 / 7 out of 10 and his party would drop back to the mid 30s.
5. In regard to Horwath, a good performance would likely see her Party climb to be in direct competition with the Liberals.
6. Conversely, a poor performance on Horwath’s part would see her Party slip lower into the 20s.
So that’s what could happen.
Here is what I think will happen:
1. Hudak will be perceived to do well since expectations for him are lower than for the other two. In so doing, he will be able to hold on to his majority status lead.
2. Wynne will also be seen to have done well and accordingly should have no trouble hanging on to her support in the low 30s.
3. Horwath becomes the wild card. If she scores big, and I think she will, the NDP will move up to challenge the Grits for 2nd place.
But as I said, this is what I currently think will happen … it will all depend upon the polls between now and the debate and then between the debate and election day.
So on the note …stay tuned for the next ‘pretend its election day’.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’
