‘Warm Bucket Of Spit’.
So said, John Nance Garner, FDR’s VP, in describing his esteem for the Office of the Vice President of the United States.
So how does this relate to today’s topic of Quebec’s Independence?
Permit me to explain.
Much has been said lately about the trials and tribulations which would result should Quebecers actually vote to leave the Canadian Confederation.
Federalist point out with pride that our top court – the Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) has ruled that Quebec can only begin negotiations to leave Canada after having voted to separate on a clear question and supported by a clear majority.
That is to say – fuzzy wording, as appeared in the 1995 Referendum would not be allowed nor would a 50% plus 1 vote be deemed sufficient to go.
Given that current levels of support for separation in Quebec is at most 40%, the Supreme Court Ruling would seem to indicate that the Separatists will have little chance of successfully carrying out a split.
Moreover, Federalists point to the Clarity Act which was passed in the days following the SSC judgment. The Act puts into legislation the salient provisions of the Court’s decision.
From my readings what this amounts to is as follows: a Referendum to be legal must have a clear question – i.e. Do you wish to have Quebec separate from Canada and establish its own country? … Yes or No.
If yes – a vote of at least 60% would be needed to satisfy the ‘clear majority’ requirement.
So tough stuff given that there remains in Quebec a sizable non-francophone presence which will vote nearly 100% to remain in Canada.
And there dear reader comes the Russia / Ukraine moment.
As my recent Blogs have so clearly indicated, there is nothing standing in the way of Russia taking over the Crimea and indeed all of Ukraine despite the international laws it is breaking.
If the West through NATO is not prepared to expend blood and treasure retaining Ukraine – and they are not, Russia is in the driver’s seat. Yelling, screaming, and sanctions just won’t stop them.
Sadly, the same applies to Canada and Quebec.
If Canada is not prepared to send in the troops – and I do not see that happening since Canadians living outside of that province no longer care whether Quebec stays or goes.
Ergo – like Russia – Quebec is in the driver’s seat. It and it alone can decide what is sufficient to see their Province leave Confederation.
I would even suggest that if Quebec held and received a majority vote for separation amongst francophones only – there would be nothing anyone outside of Quebec could do to prevent it.
So you can have all the Supreme Court Rulings and many other laws such as the Clarity Act as you want, and they will not make one iota of difference in preventing Quebec separation.
In that light – such Rulings and Laws are but a warm bucket of spit.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’
