What do you think they mean Galagher – if anything?
And here is what I think:
- The Tories will win the next general provincial election;
- The big winner last evening was the NDP;
- The big loser …was Kathleen Wynne – followed closely by Tim Hudak.
How so?
Well let’s look at the numbers:
- Etobicoke-Lakeshore;
The PC vote went up from 2011 (29.5) to 46% last evening and a win – a gain of some +16.5 per cent.
The Liberal vote went down from (51%) to 42% a drop of some - 9%.
2. London West:
The NDP vote went up from 16% in 2011 to winning last eve with 45.65% a gain of +30 %
The Liberals dropped from 45.65 % to 16 % last evening a drop of nearly 30%
3. Ottawa South:
The Liberals won taking 42% of the vote – but it represented a drop of –7%.
The Tories lost but their popular vote increased from 33.4% to 39% a gain of some +5.5%
4. Scarborough – Guildwood
The Liberals took this riding as well with 36% of the vote – down from 49% in the last general provincial election – a loss of some – 13%
The Tories – vote increased marginally from 28.6% to 31% last night – a gain of about +3.5%.
The NDP had the greatest increase here going from 19.4% to 28% a gain of + 9%.
5. Windsor Tecumseh
The NDP won this going away increasing their % of the vote from 33 to 61% – some +28%
The Liberals dropped from 42.8% to 12% a fall of some – 30%.
A summary:
The Liberal Vote on average dropped from 47.5% to 29.5 an overall decline of -18.00%
The Conservative Vote on average increased from 28% to 34% an increase of +6%. Of greater importance – the Tory average vote of 34% is higher than the Liberal average of 29.60 % and this coming from long time Liberal held ridings.
The NBP average % vote in these 5 byelection ridings was up from 20.5% in 2011 to 30.5% an increase of +10%. So even though this represents a substantial come back for the Dippers – it still falls short of the overall Tory %.
The big takeaway here is that these byelections last night were held in staunch long time Grit Ridings.
The numbers – as per above – are instructive in that they show the Liberals to be very much on the ropes – regardless how the Wynnites try to spin it.
Strange as it may seem – the big winner last night turns out to be the Tory Party – despite gaining only 1 seat – and at the same time, one of the big losers is Tim Hudak – for the that self same reason – he only won one, out of 5 last night.
And although the NDP appears to be the big winner – it really isn’t since it does not resonate with Ontarians generally.
Simply stated these 5 ridings are not representative of the majority and the fact that the Tories received the highest overall % average is quite amazing.
Hopefully when these facts sink in – talk about replacing Hudak will stop; the bottom-line is that even with a weak leader – the Tories should form Ontario's next Government.
As I see it…
‘K.D. Galagher’
