Andrea Horwath by a nose.
So say The Three Polls out since the Debate.
Angus Reid - Libs 33%; Tories 34%; and NDP 26%
Leger - Libs 32%; Tories 34% and NDP 29%
Nanos - Libs 37.7%; Tories 34.4% and NDP 25.5%
Average %: Liberals 34.23; PCs 34.13; and NDP 26.83.
Now those same three Pollsters, had pre-debate %'s as follows:
Angus Reid - Libs 32; Tories 36; and NDP 26
Leger - Libs 33; Tories 36; and NDP 26
Nanos - Libs 38.1; Tories 34.7; and NDP 24.3
Average %: Liberals 34.36; PCs 35.54; and NDP 25.43
Ergo dear reader, the NDP was the only Party to increase its support post debate - from 25.43 average to 26.83 average or 1.4%
Both the Liberals and the PCs dropped in their per centages - the Conservatives dropped the most, going from an average of 35.53 to 34.13 or a drop of 1.4%. Which may not seem like much but in this dead head election race, every point counts.
The Liberal drop was minuscule, going from an average of 34.36 prior to the Debate to 34.23 Post Debate, for a drop of only .13%.
What this tells me then is that the NDP won the Debate - the Conservatives lost the Debate and the Liberals were able to hold their own.
You may say with the margins of error etc that is all assumption on your part Galagher, and you'd be correct.
But at least my assumption is based upon something concrete and not just on pundits' analysis of how one candidate moved his hands nervously or another candidate's smile was weird.
Plus to limit the margin of error issue, I have averaged the three polls which should more or less eliminate that problem.
But the implications of these recent polls are telling, even if obvious.
That is to say, if an Election was held today, Ontario would elect an Minority Government, either Liberal or Tory with the NDP holding the balance of power.
But we still have a few days left so change in these numbers is still possible albeit unlikely.
My prediction on numbers - Wednesday night.
As I see it..
'K.D. Galagher'
