The Pundits Up.
A recap – Ekos came out yesterday with a Poll showing the Tories @ 33.7 % – the NDP @ 28% and Liberals @ 23.7 %.
It would be quite shocking – if only it was Accurate.
Rest easy though since It Is Not.
The Tories have not run a spectacular campaign – but they have held their own and their core following is in tact; that is to say in the very high 30 per centile.
The NDP has caught fire in Quebec – and I have no clue as to why, other than the fact that Quebecers are merely leaving one Socialist Group – ie the Bloc – for another – the NDP.
The Liberals have not run particularly well and Ignatieff continues to be the least popular Leader but although they are in decline they are by no means in collapse.
All this to say – as I have continued to say – the Tories remain in the high 30s and the Layton and Ignatieff are splitting the balance more or less evenly albeit with an edge to the NDP at this point.
The only question remaining for me is whether after May 2nd there will be a Majority Tory Gov’t or a Coalition between the other Two.
That said, I have never seen an Election where the majority of the Pundits are so dumbfounded: they readily admit that they have no idea what the make-up of the next Parliament will be.
I had promised to publish my prediction on Sunday but given the interest and the conflicting polls will do so over the course of this Saturday.
If the Libs and NDP do in fact form the new Government – especially with Jack Layton as PM – Canada will spiral down as is currently the case with our neighbours to the South.
Pretty Scary Stuff..
As I see it …
‘Galagher’
